Buccaneers vs. Falcons Line Moving Towards Tampa Bay: How Should You Bet?

Not even a road victory and a win against the spread last week at Jacksonville vs. the Jaguars is enough for bettors to consider wagering on the Atlanta Falcons as a double-digit home dog in Week 13.

After opening at +9.5 on Sunday evening at WynnBET Sportsbook, Atlanta has fallen all the way to an 11-point underdog against the MVP favorite, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The line has now moved a full point and a half in favor of Tampa Bay with the total increasing a. point from 49.5 to 50.5.

Both teams are 5-6-0 ATS this season, but the Bucs have a three game lead in the loss column for the NFC South division. They also have Rob Gronkowski back, who has been instrumental in Brady's success not just in Tampa, but throughout his career. Our Matt De Saro highlighted just how much better Brady's numbers have been with Gronk in the lineup compared to when he's out.

Typically, money coming in this early in the week is an indication of sharp money for Tampa Bay, but are they pushing this number too high for a road team in a divisional matchup?

Let's take a closer look.

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Are the Falcons a Good Bet vs. the Buccaneers as Double Digit Home Underdogs?

Despite several noticeable flaws, I love the value for Atlanta in this spot at home.

Over their last 10 games, the Falcons have gone 8-2 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points. They also played Tampa tight for three quarters back in Week 2 away from home before two pick-sixes and a touchdown pass from Brady to Chris Godwin give Tampa a 48-25 victory

For as dominant as the Bucs have looked this year, they're still a 3-3 team SU away from home and are a league worst 1-5-0 ATS on the road.

I'm still buying the value for the Falcons even with the trends going ahead them. Despite underdogs going 99-76-1 in 2021, covering the spread at just under 57% this year, the Falcons are 2-4-0 ATS when they're not favored, and are 0-2 as home dogs.

Then again, Tampa Bay hasn't been much better, going 5-6-0 as a favorite, and 1-5-0 as chalk on the road.

With both teams featuring terrible ATS records in this matchup, it's hard not to consider simply taking the points, especially with the number continuing to climb.

The Bucs are the far superior team, but this is way too many points to lay considering Tampa's road issues this year.