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Buffalo vs. Toledo Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 10

By Reed Wallach

Sep 2, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Buffalo Bulls wide receiver Nik McMillan (17) during the game
Sep 2, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Buffalo Bulls wide receiver Nik McMillan (17) during the game / Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
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Buffalo travels to Toledo in hopes of snapping the Rockets seven game winning streak.

However, oddsmakers aren't confident in the Bulls' chances as the team is catching north of two touchdowns in this MACtion showdown on Tuesday. The defending champion Rockets are in line to return to the conference title game and make it back-to-back wins as the team has been able to win three straight conference games by a combined 13 points.

Can Toledo cover a big spread or will this be another tight one?

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Buffalo vs. Toledo Odds, Spread and Total

Toledo vs. Buffalo Betting Trends

  • Toledo is 2-5 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite this season
  • Buffalo is 5-3 ATS this season
  • Buffalo is 4-1 ATS this season as an underdog
  • Toledo has gone OVER in three of four home games

Buffalo vs. Toledo How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, October 31st
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
  • Venue: The Glass Bowl
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
  • Buffalo Record: 3-5
  • Toledo Record: 7-1

Buffalo vs. Toledo Key Players to Watch

Buffalo

Ron Cook Jr.: The Buffalo ground game has kept the team afloat this season, ranking 30th in success rate. Cook is the team's leading rusher while averaging nearly five yards per carry and will draw a favorable matchup against a Toledo defense that is outside the top 120 in yards per carry allowed.

Toledo

Peny Boone: Boone has been one of the best running backs in the country this season, rushing for 878 yards with eight touchdowns on more than seven yards per rush. This has been an elite Toledo offense that is 11th in yards per carry and top 15 in red zone touchdown percentage due in part to Boone's ability to keep the team ahead of schedule.

Buffalo vs. Toledo Prediction and Pick

Toledo is a tricky team to figure out. On paper, this looks like the best Group of Five offense in the country. The offense has allowed only three sacks this season and the team is just outside the top 30 in yards per play and points per drive. Yet, the team can't cover spreads at a high clip?

Some of that can be attributed to the team's poor rush defense and constant penalties. The Rockets are 112th in penalty yards per game. Given that Buffalo's strength comes on the ground, I believe that the team can be competitive in this matchup given that Toledo hasn't earned my trust to cover a big spread.

Further, after a slow start to the season that included losing four straight to open the year, the Bulls are rounding into form, winning three of four and getting its defense going. The team has one of the better defensive lines in the MAC, 17th in line yards, and is elite at generating turnovers, 13th in the country with 14. The team has been good down-to-down as well against the run, allowing less than four yards per carry, but is also bottom five at explosive rush defense, something to keep in mind in this one.

Ultimately, I can't trust Toledo to cover this big of a number given its struggles of late of pulling away from opponents. Buffalo has an outside chance at bowl eligibility this season and a road stunner could jump-start that second-half push. I need to see Toledo play to oddsmakers' expectations before I trust them to win by more than two scores.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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