Buy or Sell Patrick Mahomes' MVP Chances this Season?

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs haven't hit rock bottom just yet, but their collective odds have certainly been bottoming out over the last several weeks.

After starting the season as both the Super Bowl (+525) and AP MVP favorite (+450), the odds have since plummeted over at WynnBET Sportsbook heading into Week 8.

Right now, Kansas City is +1600 to win the Super Bowl, and is no longer the clear favorite to win the AFC West division; trailing the Los Angeles Chargers (-110) at odds of +225. Mahomes has also fallen all the way to +5000 to win NFL MVP, 11th-best on the board.

Kansas City is a mess. After talks of a potential 17-0 season, the Chiefs are 3-4, with a defense that's given up the second-most points in the NFL, and an offense that can't stop turning the ball over.

Mahomes is third in the NFL with 18 touchdowns, but has also thrown a stunning nine interceptions this season, which is two more than what he threw an entire season. Granted, several of the picks have bounced out of his teammates' hands, but the fact remains that KC, at this very moment, is nowhere near the supposed juggernaut club many of us expected.

So what should bettors do? Should they attempt to buy at the lowest odds we'll likely see all season? Or sell while they still can?

Brian Guiffra is on the side of jumping ship to save face, while I'm ready to take arguably the best player in the NFL at a discount. Which side are you on?

Buy Patrick Mahomes' MVP Chances in 2021

Mahomes leads the NFL in turnovers, nine of his 11 coming by way of interception.

While on the surface, that may appear to be a damning statistic, it's not actually reflective of how he's actually played this season.

According to Pro Football Focus, Mahomes, despite nine picks, has actually only thrown six turnover-worthy throws; a metric that takes into consideration passes that should have actually been intercepted, rather than the variance that can come off a pass that was dropped or bobbled by a receiver.

Turns out, Mahomes has actually been incredibly unlucky this year. He should actually be in the middle of the pack when it comes to actual turnovers, but that's also based on every turnover-worthy throw actually being a turnover! It's the equivalent of scorching a baseball but hitting it right at a fielder. It doesn't help your stat line, but at some point, if you continue to hit the ball with a high exit velocity, it's going to start getting through.

Mahomes still is in command of an offense that's top three in yardage, and top eight in points scored in the NFL. Judging by the state of their defense (27th in points allowed, 28th in yards), if the Chiefs are going to rebound and make a run this season, it's going to be because Mahomes helps get them there.

The other candidates in Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen and Tom Brady are all deserving, but there's no clear-cut leader, giving Mahomes an opportunity to get back into the mix.

If I can get 50/1 odds on him, I'll bet that every time.

Sell Patrick Mahomes' MVP Chances in 2021

How anyone can think Patrick Mahomes has a shot in hell of winning the MVP this year is beyond me. At this point, the NFL MVP award has become about two things: winning and producing touchdowns, neither of which Mahomes is doing at a high enough rate for consideration. Throw in his disastrous turnover totals and you've got a guy with no chance of adding to his hardware collection this year. 

Even more than his and the Chiefs' issues, Mahomes competition for the award have already created a near insurmountable lead on him. Kyler Murray has led the Cardinals to an undefeated season and has one fewer TD and half as many turnovers as Mahomes. Dak Prescott has proven to be the missing ingredient to the Cowboys being successful and likewise has nearly as many touchdowns and far fewer turnovers. All of this is true for Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson too. 

Do we really think Mahomes can leapfrog all of those players and win the MVP? 

At this point, Mahomes only hope of winning MVP is to run the board and play turnover-free football. Based on what we've seen from him and the Chiefs this year, that's not happening. Not with that defense. 

So no, Patrick Mahomes has no chance of winning the MVP this year and the Chiefs have no chance of winning the Super Bowl. You can take any tickets you had on those bets and burn them. Or you can hold on to them and burn them at the end of the season. But it's already getting cold outside and the wood in my fireplace needs a spark to get things going. -- Brian Giuffra