BYU vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds, Key Players for Tuesday, Jan. 9 (Trust Baylor at Home)

Jan 6, 2024; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Baylor Bears guard Langston Love (13) drives to the basket
Jan 6, 2024; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Baylor Bears guard Langston Love (13) drives to the basket / William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

BYU had a welcome to the Big 12 moment against fellow newcomer Cincinnati over the weekend, losing at home by 11, and it won't get any easier as the team travels to face Baylor, one of the stalwarts of arguably the best conference in college hoops.

The Bears are fresh off an overtime road win at Oklahoma State and bolster one of the best offenses in the nation. Will one of the gatekeepers of the Big 12 hand the new-entrant BYU another loss after the Cougars tore through its nonconference schedule? Here are the odds for Tuesday's matchup in Waco, Texas.

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BYU vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total

Baylor vs. BYU Betting Trends

  • BYU is 11-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Baylor is 9-4 ATS this season
  • BYU hasn't been an underdog all season
  • BYU has gone UNDER in nine of 14 games this season

BYU vs. Baylor How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, January 9th
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Ferrell Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
  • BYU Record: 12-2
  • Baylor Record: 12-2

BYU vs. Baylor Key Players to Watch


Jaxson Robinson: The 6'7" senior has taken over a feature role for the team as the primary threat off the bench, averaging 15 points per game while hitting 40% of his three-point shots on more than seven attempts per game. Yes, he doesn't start, but Robinson is as dangerous as anybody on the Cougars' roster.


RayJ Dennis: The Toledo transfer isn't averaging as many points, but is enjoying a career year in his role, upping his assists average north of six and shooting nearly 53% from the field and 43% from beyond the arc. Dennis is the straw that stirs the drink for Baylor's explosive offense.

BYU vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

BYU is a team I'm itching to fade as the Cougars enter Big 12 play. The team was as impressive as anybody in non-conference play, but against a relatively soft schedule that featured only two KenPom top 100 teams.

While the team entered the KenPom top five, Mark Pope's team was on shaky ground, and it was exposed against a physical Cincinnati team in Provo on Saturday night, losing by double digits to the Bearcats. Now, with a quick turnaround to Waco to face Baylor, the Cougs are in trouble.

Baylor's defense isn't so potent this season, 70th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency that is held up by a strong strength of schedule, but the offense is as dangerous as any team in the country.

The Bears are second in the country in effective field goal percentage. While I doubt the team will continue to shoot a national-best 45% from beyond the arc, I also don't believe in BYU's three-point defense allowing teams to shoot the fifth lowest three-point percentage in 26%.

There's two-way regression for both Baylor's three-point shooting and BYU's three-point defense, but I'm far more comfortable backing the Bears offense to keep up at home.

The key for Baylor will be its ability to make BYU play in the half-court, which it does at a bottom 10 rate according to ShotQuality. While the Cougs offense is still dangerous when not in transition, scoring at a top 40 rate per SQ, the Baylor defense is nails, 10th in that same metric on defense.

I believe Baylor can pounce on a vulnerable team at home and cover this spread with a strong offensive performance in a welcoming party for BYU to the Big 12.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!