The ninth-ranked Oregon Ducks will host the Cal Golden Bears on Friday night at Autzen Stadium as 14-point underdogs, per WynnBET’s college football odds. With the Ducks 4-1 and the Golden Bears 1-4, it is almost a wonder that Oregon is only favored by two touchdowns.
So what is the best way to tackle this game from a betting perspective? Let’s go over the odds at first and find the best value on the board for this Pac-12 showdown.
(9) Oregon Ducks vs. California Golden Bears
Oregon: -14.0 (-110)
California: +14.0 (-110)
Total: 55.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
California vs Oregon Betting Trends
- Oregon is 3-1 SU vs California in their last three meetings. The Ducks outscored the Golden Bears 121-76 in those four games.
- Oregon and Cal have combined for just three total ATS wins this season
- Oregon games are averaging three more points this season (59.7) than the total of this game (55.5)
California vs Oregon Prediction and Pick
The Oregon Ducks are coming off a brutal overtime loss to the Stanford Cardinal in Week 5. The loss snapped the Ducks’ four-game winning streak and ended the team’s perfect season. While Stanford is a better team than many believe them to be, the fact is that Oregon should have won that game.
As a two-touchdown favorite, this game should get Oregon back on track, but I don’t quite trust them to get it done ATS. The problem is the Ducks haven’t covered well as heavy favorites. In fact, they haven’t covered it at all.
Oregon has played three games this season as favorites of 14 points or more. They failed to cover a single one. So, the spread is off the table in this one for the favorites.
Despite this, I still don’t feel great about betting on Cal to cover either. The Golden Bears have covered just twice this year so far. There is nothing to be made on the moneyline either so we are left with betting the total in this one.
In 2021, Oregon is averaging 35.8 points per game and giving up 21.8. Cal, meanwhile, averages 24.2 points on offense and gives up an average of 27.6. Combining the two scoring offenses gives us an average of 60 points, which would be sufficient to hit the over in this game.
However, this doesn’t tell the whole story. My problem with betting the over in this game is the recent issues plaguing Ducks’ QB Anthony Brown. A talented player for sure, Brown has had a difficult time moving into the role of full-time starter. Obviously, his talent is exceptional, as evidenced by Oregon’s win over Ohio State, but consistency has been an issue.
So far in 2021, Brown has thrown for 950 yards, six TDs, and one interception. Respectable numbers, but Brown is coming off a terrible performance against Stanford where he completed just 14-of-26 passes for 188 yards and an interception. He remains the only QB of a top-10 team to complete less than 60% of his passes (51.2%).
Until he rights the ship and starts completing passes at a clip closer to 60%, I will struggle to trust Oregon with my money. Brown’s issues also make me hesitant to take this over for this game. I think that Oregon deploys more cautious playcalling than usual in order to try and get Brown back on track. While a win is likely in the Ducks’ future, even if a cover is not, I still prefer betting the total in this game and will be on the under come Friday night.
Best Bet: Cal vs Oregon UNDER 55.5 points