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Cal State Fullerton vs. Duke Prediction and Odds for NCAA Men's Tournament First Round

By Reed Wallach

Mar 12, 2022; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski coaches against the
Mar 12, 2022; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski coaches against the / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
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Duke is set as the No. 2 seed in the West region, and will play Big West Conference Champion, Cal State Fullerton, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski has his Blue Devils prepared for his final March Madness run with star forward Paolo Banchero and a vaunted offense. However, the team began to show some issues down the stretch of the season in losses to North Carolina and Virginia Tech.

Can Coach K get his team on track to make a last championship run? It starts against Cal State Fullerton on Friday night. Here are the odds for the 2/15 matchup from WynnBET Sportsbook, followed by a statistical breakdown of the two teams and a best bet.

Cal State Fullerton vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Cal State Fullerton +18.5 (-110)
  • Duke -18.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Cal State Fullerton +1400
  • Duke -2500

Total: 144.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Cal State Fullerton vs. Duke Analysis

Cal State Fullerton

  • Overall Record: 21-10
  • ATS Record: 16-12-1
  • Over/Under Record: 12-16-1
  • SoS: 203rd
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 104.6
  • Defensive Efficiency: 102.5
  • eFG%: 49.2%
  • FT%:76.4%
  • 3PT%: 33.5%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +3000 (Field)

Duke

  • Regular Season Record: 28-5
  • ATS Record:17-14-2
  • Over/Under Record: 18-14-1
  • SoS: 30th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.8
  • Defensive Efficiency: 94.9
  • eFG%: 55.7%
  • FT%: 73.2%
  • 3PT%: 37.3%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +1000

Cal State Fullerton vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

Duke's defense is a serious concern, 146th in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month of the season, but the 15 seed Titans are not going to make them pay on that end of the floor.

Ultimately, Duke's size should overwhelm Cal State Fullerton and the Blue Devils should make it look easy en route to a first round victory. But, where is the betting value?

I see some on the under. Neither team shoots a ton of 3-point shots and CSF is going to run into issues against the length of Duke on the interior, namely big man Mark Williams, who is top 20 in the country in block rate.

I see this game being one way traffic and the game becoming full of garbage time with the result never in doubt, but the possessions being limited given the tempo and score line. The Blue Devils may flirt with 80 points, but the underdog Titans are going to struggle to break 60 in a game that stays below the expected total.

LEAN: UNDER 144.5

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