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Cal vs. USC Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 10

By Reed Wallach

Oct 15, 2022; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) warms up prior
Oct 15, 2022; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) warms up prior / Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
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USC remains in control of their own destiny for a PAC-12 Championship and a faint shot at the College Football Playoff and should have little issue picking up a win on Saturday against lowly Cal, but can they cover?

The Trojans failed to cover last week on the road against Arizona, letting them get a late score to cash in a 45-37 loss, and now are laying more than three touchdowns at home. Will the Trojans defense hold off the Bears in order to cover this massive spread, or can Justin Wilcox continue to perform will for bettors with a cover as a big underdog?

Here are the odds for this PAC-12 matchup:

Cal vs. USC Odds, Spread and Total

Cal vs. USC Betting Trends

  • USC is 5-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Cal is 4-4 ATS this season
  • Cal head coach Justin Wilcox is 17-4 ATS as an underdog of a touchdown or more
  • Cal has gone UNDER in three of four games as an underdog

Cal vs. USC Prediction and Pick

This number flew from the opener of -19.5 through three touchdowns and sitting at -21.5 now. It makes sense given that Oregon just gashed Cal last week in Berkley to the tune of 42 points, but Cal's offense kept pace, scoring 24 points of their own.

This may not be pretty, but I think at over three touchdowns Cal is the valuable side. The Bears defense is built to stop big plays, top 30 in both explosive pass and rush defense, and while USC is going to get their points it may take some time. Both teams are outside the top 100 in plays per minute.

The key to this game will be if Cal can find the end zone enough to stay within shouting distance. The team is top third of the country in explosive plays and USC is bottom 20 in explosive run rate that is also allowing nearly five yards per carry. The Bears do throw the ball at a high rate, but Wilcox has a path to success on the ground with talented running back Jaydn Ott.

It's not fun to go against the talented Trojans, but with their methodical tempo and games against UCLA and Notre Dame still on the horizon, I think Cal can get to about 24 points in this one, which is enough for a cover.

I believe Wilcox is going to try and play even slower than normal and make this game into a crawl and keep the clock moving. Last week they missed the cover by a point at a massive number to Oregon, but they are the valuable bet on Saturday night to stay within another bloated number.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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