Can Carson Wentz Compete With Tom Brady?

Tom Brady led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11 to a big win over the New York Giants 30-10. The team avoided their third straight loss after starting the season 6-1. Brady played so well in fact, with 307 yards and two touchdowns, that he is now the favorite to win the MVP. 

Brady will go head-to-head against Carson Wentz in this game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Wentz hasn’t been lighting up the box score lately but his team is still winning. Wentz was slinging early on in the season but the Colts' gameplan has shifted away from the pass in recent weeks. 

Let’s take a look at some prop odds for the pair from WynnBET Sportsbook for their Week 12 showdown and try to find some betting value. 

Carson Wentz Passing Yards Total 246.5 (OVER -125/UNDER -115)

Carson Wentz has had some bright moments this season but they haven't come in the last couple of weeks. Sure, the Colts are on a three-game win streak, but the rushing game has a whole lot to do with that. Wentz, meanwhile, had 106 yards last week against the Bills and 180 the week before against the Jets. What Wentz has been doing well is to avoid making mistakes. He has only three interceptions all season compared with 18 touchdowns. His 2,484 total yards arent that bad either. 

The point is that the Colts offense runs through the runners right now and Wentz is primarily there to hand the ball off and play catch-up if need be. I think that, much like the last two weeks, that the Colts lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor and Wentz’s stats suffer as a result. 

Tom Brady Passing Yards Total 317.5 (OVER -125/UNDER -115)

Tom Brady continues to defy age, critics, and betting odds at the ripe age of 44. He currently leads the NFL in passing touchdowns with 29 and is third in total yards (3,177) and QBR (65.3). He also leads the MVP odds by a significant margin over Josh Allen. 

While the Bucs have their hands full with this surging Colts team, Brady has a fairly strong matchup against the 17th ranked passing defense in the NFL. Through 11 weeks, the Colts are averaging 260.1 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. While that number is far lower than the 317.5 projected total, Brady is not your everyday QB. 

Brady’s average of 317.7 passing yards per game is 0.2 yards more than his projection for this game. Brady has gone over 300 yards in two of his last three games and five games overall. I think that this game will be close and high scoring with two powerful offenses on the field. This bodes well for Brady and I’m willing to bet he goes off.