Can Draymond Green's Injury Propel Rudy Gobert to 4th Defensive Player of the Year?
By Reed Wallach
Draymond Green has been the betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year for quite some time this season, currently -110 at WynnBET Sportsbook, but may be surpassed over the next few weeks.
Green is set to miss the next two weeks with a calf injury that can slow down his production. Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert is anchoring a once again elite Jazz defense. Can the French big man win his fourth DPOY?
He is the second choice as of this writing at +200, is it worth putting a bet on it?
The Jazz are third in the Western Conference, trailing the Phoenix Suns by 4.5 games and 2.5 behind the Golden State Warriors, but Gobert's defense has kept them in the hunt.
The Jazz allow 11.8 less points per 100 possessions when Gobert is on the floor, 98th percentile per Cleaning the Glass. As well, teams see their effective field goal percentage go down by nearly 5% when he is on the floor, 95th percentile.
Gobert's impact is immense on the defensive side of the floor, the numbers don't lie. With a 7'9" wingspan, his rim protection is second to none.
How about this stat?
Gobert's defense is the most impactful in the league, so why shouldn't he continue to rack up the hardware? Voter fatigue is a factor, but it's tough to find other impactful defenders that are more deserving?
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the third choice at +750, but his numbers pale into comparison to Gobert's on a per possession level and win shares, which Gobert leads the league in with 2.6. Chris Paul and Stephen Curry are tied second with 2.4. Green is right behind with 2.3.
Elsewhere, players like Mikal Bridges are +2200 present a wing threat that could win the award, but his underlying metrics don't touch Gobert's. Teams are actually scoring more points when Bridges is on the floor for the Phoenix Suns than when he is off. His one-on-one defense is fantastic, but he lacks the numbers to warrant the award.
With Green set to miss more time with a calf injury, this can open up space for Gobert to make up ground and win it yet again.