Can Jimmy Butler Break Out of Shooting Slump in Game 3?

The phrase "must-win game" is tossed around a lot during the NBA playoffs, but Game 3 against the Milwaukee Bucks is about as close to a must-win as you can get if you’re the Miami Heat. 

The Heat lost a close Game 1 despite poor performances from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but they were blown out in Game 2. I had expected the Heat to bounce back, but Butler’s struggles have made it hard on a Miami team that is clearly worse than last year. 

Miami made the NBA Finals last season, and it knocked off the Bucks in five games in the Eastern Conference semifinals to get there. However, Butler has put up 4-for-22 and 4-for-10 shooting performances in the first two games, and the Heat simply can’t survive if their best player is going to struggle like that.

Vegas is predicting a bounce-back game from Butler in Game 3, as his player prop projection for points is set for 23.5 on WynnBET with the over (-120) being favored to the under (+100). Butler averaged 21.5 points per game during the regular season, but Vegas thinks he can surpass that total with the Heat having their backs against the wall tonight. 

Miami is a 1.5-point underdog at home and the total is set for 226 on WynnBET. 

I’m not really seeing it, as Butler has been stifled by the Milwaukee defense all series long. Jimmy isn’t a good 3-point shooter (just 24.5 percent this season), and he hasn’t scored over 23 points in a game since May 9. 

Butler had an unbelievable run in the playoffs last season, but he’s killed the Heat this postseason, as they would have likely won Game 1 had he shot a little better than 4-for-22 from the field. 

While I do think he will shoot better than 25 percent from the field on Thursday, I’d take the under for Butler’s points in a series that looks like it could be a sweep for Milwaukee.