The Montreal Canadiens avoided being the first team to get swept in the Stanley Cup Finals since 1998 by defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2 in overtime in a pivotal Game 4.
Despite getting their first win of the series, oddsmakers have no faith in the Canadiens completing the unlikely comeback. WynnBET still has the Lightning set as massive -3000 favorites to win the Stanley Cup, which is an implied probability of 96.77%. Montreal, on the other hand, has their odds set at +1700 to win the series in Game 7.
The most likely series outcome, according to the odds, is for the Lightning to finish it off in their home arena in Game 5, where they’re set as -200 favorites.
While the Lightning winning the series seems likely, I can’t help but to think of Tampa Bay’s mayor going on video yesterday morning saying that she hopes the Lightning lose Game 4 to give the Canadiens their first win before winning the Cup in their home arena.
That’s what they call "bulletin board material" for the Canadiens.
This is the kind of thing that curses a franchise and gets played on repeat after the Canadiens win four straight. https://t.co/W9SmaR75VL
— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) July 5, 2021
Remember when the Vancouver Canucks took the ice in Boston in the morning before Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals because they wanted to see what it’d be like to win the Cup in their visitors rink? Boston went on to win the next two straight games and the Canucks have never recovered.
While the jinx was uncomfortable for people like me that aren’t exactly superstitious, but a “little stitious” as Michael Scott would put it, history doesn’t support the Habs.
Only four teams in NHL Playoff history have returned from a 3-0 deficit to win the series. The last time it occurred was in 2015 when the Los Angeles Kings won four straight games after being down 3-0 to the San Jose Sharks in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
The phenomenon has only occurred once in the Stanley Cup Finals, and it was way back in 1942 when my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs completed the unlikely comeback against the Detroit Red Wings.
The odds are stacked against the Canadiens, but the feat isn’t impossible. The possibility of it happening is exactly what makes sports so great.