Canisius vs. Fairfield Prediction and Odds for MAAC First Round (Golden Griffiths to Continue Hot Stretch of Play)
By Joe Summers
The 11-20 No. 10 seed Canisius Golden Griffiths take on the 14-17 No. 7 Fairfield Stags in the first round of the MAAC Tournament today at 7:00 PM EST.
I previewed the MAAC Tournament here yesterday and neither team jumped out as a value bet, but someone has to emerge victorious, so who will it be?
Canisius is closing the year playing some excellent basketball, winning three-straight and covering the spread in eight of their last nine. Fairfield, on the other hand, is just 3-7 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10.
The Stags did beat the Golden Griffiths 80-76 last month - can Fairfield keep their season alive with another victory, or will Canisius stay hot to exact revenge?
Let's check out the odds via WynnBET to see where the value lies in this MAAC Tournament matchup:
Canisius vs Fairfield Odds, Spread and Total
Spread
- Canisius +2.5 (-110)
- Fairfield -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Canisius +120
- Fairfield -145
Total:
- 132 (Over -110/Under -110)
Canisius vs Fairfield Prediction and Pick
Fairfield should not be favored in this game. Their offense is a disgrace, ranking in the 2nd percentile in rating over their last five as they can't hit water falling out of a boat. The Stags are in the 0 percentile in field goal percentage in that stretch and they're shooting terribly from all areas of the court.
That bodes poorly against a Canisius defense that's turned up the pressure of late with a 74th-percentile ranking in defensive rating over their last five. The Golden Griffiths are not a good offensive team, but they do rank in the 97th percentile in turnover percentage in that stretch and protect the ball well.
Canisius is 7-1 when they generate 15 or more assists, so ball movement will be key. Luckily, they're in the 94th percentile in assist percentage (how many baskets come from an assist) over that five-game sample and Fairfield's defense is not disruptive, forcing turnovers on just 17% of opponent's possessions (259th nationally).
The Stags are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite and their offense is playing too poorly to trust in this spot. On top of their complete inability to shoot, they're in the 1st percentile in free throw percentage and won't capitalize even if they get to the charity stripe.
Sometimes, it's as simple as "which team is playing well and which is not?" And today, we've got a Canisius squad that's rolling and a Fairfield team that can't get out of their own way. Give me the Golden Griffiths to keep it close.
Pick: Canisius +2.5 (-110)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.