Cardinals vs. Brewers Prediction and Odds for Thursday, June 23 (Negative Regression Coming for Each Pitcher)

Dakota Hudson's underlying metrics suggest struggles are ahead as the Cardinals take on the Brewers today
Dakota Hudson's underlying metrics suggest struggles are ahead as the Cardinals take on the Brewers today / Dilip Vishwanat/GettyImages

The Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals today at 2:10 PM EST to conclude a four-game series.

Jason Alexander makes his fifth career start for Milwaukee, compiling a 1-0 record and 2.42 ERA in the first four. He's yet to allow a home run or more than two runs in an outing.

St. Louis turns to Dakota Hudson, who allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. His underlying metrics are underwhelming, however, and he struggles with command. Hudson walked five Red Sox batters in his most recent start and needs to regain control to give the Cardinals a fighting chance.

Can Hudson stifle the Brewers' lineup or will Alexander stay hot to give Milwaukee a home victory?

To analyze this matchup, here's a look at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for this Cardinals vs Brewers series finale:

Cardinals vs Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Cardinals -1.5 (+130)
  • Brewers +1.5 (-150)


  • Cardinals: -120
  • Brewers: +100


  • 9.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction and Pick

This matchup is a showdown of two pitchers who must carry four-leaf clovers around all day, because both Dakota Hudson and Jason Alexander are extremely lucky.

Hudson has a strong 3.31 ERA on the season, but his 4.47 expected ERA suggests he's been mediocre. We've seen him regress a bit already, giving up six runs to the Reds before issuing five walks to the Red Sox last week, and his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile paints an uninspiring picture:

It's difficult to trust the Brewers offensively, but they draw walks at a top-10 rate in MLB and they've already seen Hudson twice this season. That familiarity will allow them to take advantage of his erratic command and put up some runs.

While the Cardinals' righty has been lucky, Hudson's good fortune pales in comparison to that of Jason Alexander. Milwaukee's 29-year-old rookie has a 2.42 actual ERA and a 5.33 expected ERA, which is an absurd discrepancy. He walks too many hitters himself, as his 3.63 walks per nine innings would be the fifth worst in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

St. Louis has the eighth-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks, and I expect their dangerous lineup to give Alexander his first real taste of the big leagues.

With two pitchers due for negative regression and capable lineups, I'm betting the over. It's 8-3 in the Cardinals' last 11 games and 7-3 in Milwaukee's previous 10 as home underdogs. Both of those trends will improve in a high-scoring affair today.

Pick: Over 9 (-115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.