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Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 22 (Keep Backing Cardinals' Offense)

By Joe Summers

Jordan Montgomery is 3-0 with a 0.54 ERA in three starts with the Cardinals
Jordan Montgomery is 3-0 with a 0.54 ERA in three starts with the Cardinals / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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If we did a survey across the universe asking people "Who will have the lowest August ERA among starting pitchers?" then I don't think any ballots would have listed Jordan Montgomery or Drew Smyly (perhaps their respective families').

That shows how little we know, as both Montgomery (0.54) and Smyly (1.06) rank in the top five in ERA this month. They've both been superb and we've got a fantastic game in store as the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals this evening.

The Cardinals are a significantly better offense against left-handed pitchers than the Cubs are - will it matter? Or will Chicago pick up it's fourth win in five games as a home underdog?

Let's take a peak at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to find the value in this NL Central showdown:

Cardinals vs Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Cardinals -1.5 (+100)
  • Cubs +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline:

  • Cardinals: -153
  • Cubs: +143

Total:

  • 8.0 (Over -110/Under -110)

Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction and Pick

All of a sudden, the St. Louis Cardinals lead the NL Central by five games. It seems like just a month ago they were plus odds to make the playoffs, and now they're the best offense in MLB with a dominant rotation set to compete for a championship.

With seven straight wins and a whopping 40 runs over their last four games, the Cardinals are downright terrifying right now.

It doesn't hurt that Jordan Montgomery turned into young Adam Wainwright as soon as he got to St. Louis. He's got an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) below 2.19 in each of his last two starts and faces a Chicago Cubs lineup that ranks 20th in OPS against left-handed pitching this month. Thus, I expect Montgomery to keep his hot streak going.

I'm less confident that Drew Smyly stays hot. Despite a 1.06 ERA in August, Smyly has an expected FIP above 4.39 in two of his last three starts, and the Cardinals are on other planet offensively right now.

With Chicago's bullpen looking shaky, I'm even more confident in St. Louis' ability to earn another convincing win. It's getting a bit colder outside, birds are starting to migrate, and it seems these red birds might be moving straight to the World Series as a result.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (+100)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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