Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction and Odds for Sunday, June 5 (Don't Fall For Sportsbooks' Tricks)
By Joe Summers
The 23-31 Chicago Cubs wrap up a five-game series with the 31-23 St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball this evening at 7:08 PM EST.
Through the first four games, these squads are even at two wins each. After a highly competitive series and a double-header yesterday, both teams will want to end the war with a victory. Especially in front of national television.
St. Louis will send Adam Wainwright to the mound after he threw seven scoreless innings in a win over the Padres last week. The 40-year-old is turning back the clock in 2022, amassing an impressive 1.69 ERA in May with four quality starts in five outings.
Justin Steele gets the call for the Cubs after compiling a 5.32 ERA last month. Chicago is just 2-5 in his last seven starts and he's struggled with command, but Steele's underlying metrics suggest better times are ahead.
Will one of those times be today or will Wainwright's dominance continue? To help answer that question, let's take a gander at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook ahead of this Cardinals vs Cubs Sunday Night Baseball matchup:
Cardinals vs Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Cardinals -1.5 (+120)
- Cubs +1.5 (-145)
Moneyline:
- Cardinals: -129
- Cubs: +119
Total:
- 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction and Pick
This is the kind of game that sportsbooks love to play tricks on us with. Adam Wainwright as a short favorite against a pitcher with a 1-5 record and 5.40 ERA? HAMMER the Cardinals! But that's the kind of thinking oddsmakers want, and if you look a bit deeper you'll realize Chicago has a better chance to hang around than you might think.
Wainwright has been a lucky guy this year. Maybe he's earned it after all those years in the majors, maybe he carries a four-leaf clover, or maybe he does some kind of good luck dance before every start. Whatever the reason, his box score statistics are much better than his advanced ones. His expected ERA of 3.76 is a full run worse than his actual ERA of 2.75. He's in the second percentile in fastball velocity and first percentile in whiff percentage, so he's highly dependent on the defenders behind him to limit runs.
The Cardinals are good, not great, defensive team and it's likely Wainwright experiences some regression sooner than later. Chicago has the fourth-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers in the last two weeks, so I think that regression begins today.
Speaking of regression, it's coming in the opposite direction for Justin Steele sometime soon. He's basically Wainwright on Opposite Day in high school. His actual ERA is 5.40, but his expected ERA is 3.48. That's lower than Wainwright's! He's been one of the most unlucky pitchers in the sport and though St. Louis mashed left-handed pitchers early in May, they're just 20th in OPS against southpaws in the last two weeks.
Chicago has an impressive 24-13 record on the run line as an underdog. With the added bonus of playing Sunday Night Baseball at home, I think they're in a great spot to give Justin Steele his second win of the season.
Pick: Cubs (+119)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.