Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, August 24 (Fade Mikolas on the Road)
By Joe Summers
The St. Louis Cardinals dropped the first game of a double-header to the Chicago Cubs yesterday before winning the second, and now have wins in eight of their last nine contests. Perhaps the hottest team in baseball, St. Louis' lineup is decimating opponents, and get a favorable matchup against Luke Farrell today.
Farrell is a reliever serving as an opener for a bullpen day. In his first and only start of the year, he allowed five runs in just one inning to the Minnesota Twins. On the season, his ERA sits at 4.74.
Miles Mikolas gets the call for St. Louis, rebounding nicely from a 10-run disaster against Colorado with a pair of eight inning gems.
Can Mikolas keep the red birds rolling or will Farrell prove a worthy adversary?
Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find the value in this Cardinals vs Cubs matchup:
Cardinals vs Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Cardinals -1.5 (+130)
- Cubs +1.5 (+110)
Moneyline:
- Cardinals: -205
- Cubs: +185
Total:
- 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction and Pick
Chicago's goal here should be to make it through the first inning without a deficit. Luke Farrell is a disaster, and St. Louis can do serious damage in what will likely be the only inning he throws. Take his last appearance, for example, when Ferrell surrendered four runs to the Royals while walking three batters. Or when he gave up five runs to the Blue Jays in his first start of the season.
Simply put, Farrell cannot be trusted. The rest of Chicago's bullpen is pitching fairly well, so if the Cubs can survive the first inning unscathed, they'll be in good position to stay competitive the rest of the game.
The reason being that Miles Mikolas is not nearly as good as his box score statistics indicate of late. In fact, his road starts have been rather awful. Here is his expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) from his last seven starts away from home:
- 8/19 @ ARI: 4.70
- 8/09 @ COL: 3.27
- 7/29 @ WSN: 4.29
- 7/24 @ CIN: 5.06
- 7/06 @ ATL: 3.99
- 7/01 @ PHI: 5.52
- 6/20 @ MIL: 5.44
He's consistently terrible, and the Cardinals are just 2-6 in his last eight road outings. Chicago hits right-handed pitchers well, ranking 10th in OPS this month, and I think the Cubs can take advantage of Mikolas' road woes.
Thus, I see value in backing Chicago at huge odds. I'll look to fade Mikolas every time he's pitching on the road, and today is no different. As long as we survive the first inning, we're in great shape to pull off an upset win.
PICK: Cubs (+185)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.