The St. Louis Cardinals' offense is rolling. After scoring 23 runs in a three-game sweep of Colorado, the Cardinals lead MLB in OPS this month. They find themselves in another favorable matchup tonight against Tommy Henry and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Henry has been okay in three starts with Arizona, compiling a 4.15 ERA with a pair of wins. But he's had an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) above 5.02 in each outing, a number that would rank second-worst among all qualified MLB pitchers.
Miles Mikolas gets the call for St. Louis, coming off eight strong innings after a nightmare start against the Rockies. There are reasons to be concerned about Mikolas as well though. He's got a 4.57 ERA on the road with some discouraging underlying metrics.
Can the Cardinals press on regardless and improve to 6-2 in Mikolas' last eight starts? Or will Arizona pick up a third straight win?
Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help us find out:
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total
- Cardinals -1.5 (-115)
- Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105)
- Cardinals: -172
- Diamondbacks: +157
- 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
This is one of my favorite spots of they day, as I expect a gluttony of runs.
Both St. Louis and Arizona are hitting well, and neither pitcher inspires much confidence. The Cardinals have MLB's best offense over the last month, and the Diamondbacks rank ninth in OPS against right-handed pitchers in that time frame. There's nothing stopping these lineups from turning this game into a home run derby.
Tommy Henry walks too many batters, doesn't generate strikeouts, and allows too much hard contact. That's a woeful trifecta that St. Louis will take advantage of.
Meanwhile, Miles Mikolas ranks in the 26th percentile in expected batting average and has a FIP above 5.32 in five of his last six road starts, a mark that would be the worst in MLB over the season. He's been atrocious away from home, and the Diamondbacks are 7-2 in their last nine as home underdogs.
With how well St. Louis is hitting, though, combined with Arizona's horrendous bullpen, I can't trust the Diamondbacks on the moneyline. Instead, I'll fade both pitchers and stick with the over. It's 7-3 in the Cardinals' last 10 games and hit in each of Mikolas' last two starts. With favorable weather conditions in store, bank on another high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.