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Cardinals vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Thursday, May 19 (Hudson's Walk Rate Suggests Hard Regression)

By Matt De Saro

St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds / Dylan Buell/GettyImages
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The New York Mets host the St. Louis Cardinals in the finale of a four-game series in the National League.

This series officially kicked off on Tuesday when the pair split games at Citi Field. Despite having yet to string together a solid winning streak, the Mets continue to win a lot more games than they lose; including Wednesday's 11-4 victory. New York is steadily growing their lead in the NL East over the Marlins and Phillies. If things continue this way, the Mets will run away with the division easily. 

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are still battling to hang onto second place in the NL Central. The Cards are just 4-6 over their last 10 games, and need to pick up the pace if they hope to contend for the top spot in the division. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Cardinals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Cardinals: +1.5 (-170)
  • Mets: -1.5 (-150)

Moneyline:

  • Cardinals: +120
  • Mets: -140

Total:

  • Total 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Cardinals vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

While I think most days the Mets take this game with ease, Dakota Hudson might give them some headaches today. Hudson enters this series finale with a 3.06 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 35 ⅓ innings. He’s coming off a 4-0 win over the Giants where he pitched five scoreless innings. Pretty good numbers until you dig a bit deeper into Hudson’s first seven stars of the year. 

The first thing I noticed about Hudson, is that I don’t like is his awful strikeout to walk rate of 20:17. He’s walked more batters than he struck out a few times this season, and often finishes with 1:1 ratios in games. He's also not beating quality teams. In his seven games, Hudson has pitched against the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Royals twice; part of why he hasn’t yet been punished for his walks.

I believe that changes today, and Hudson will feel the fallout from all those free passes. 

Pick: Mets -140 to win

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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