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Cardinals vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 2 (Gibson's Home Excellence Continues)

By Joe Summers

Kyle Gibson has a 3.21 home ERA as the Phillies have won three straight at Citizens Bank Park behind him
Kyle Gibson has a 3.21 home ERA as the Phillies have won three straight at Citizens Bank Park behind him / Denis Poroy/GettyImages
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The St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies continue their three-game series this afternoon at 4:05 PM EST.

Matthew Liberatore makes his fifth start for the Cardinals after throwing five shutout innings against Pittsburgh last week. He's struggled with command though, and his 6.35 expected ERA ranks among the worst marks in MLB.

Philadelphia turns to Kyle Gibson, who has a 4-1 record and 3.21 ERA at home. Gibson got shelled by the Padres in his last outing, but prior to that threw three consecutive quality starts.

Can Gibson stay hot at Citizens Bank Park or will St. Louis pick up a road win behind Liberatore?

Before we analyze the game, let's peak at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for this Cardinals vs Phillies matchup:

Cardinals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Cardinals +1.5 (-170)
  • Phillies -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline:

  • Cardinals: +112
  • Phillies: -120

Total:

  • 9 (Over -120/Under +100)

Cardinals vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

The Phillies are adjusting to life without Bryce Harper, though Matthew Liberatore seems a perfect pitcher to face when you want to get a groove going. His 6.36 ERA trails only Jose Berrios among qualified pitchers, and he struggles with both command and limiting home runs.

That's a poor combination against a powerful lineup, and I expect Rhys Hoskins or Nick Castellanos to make the rookie pay.

Kyle Gibson is great at Citizens Bank Park and should bounce back after a rough outing against the Padres. Philadelphia has won three straight home starts by Gibson and are 9-3 in their last dozen games as home favorites. Eight of those wins came by multiple runs, and we're getting excellent value on another convincing victory.

St. Louis, meanwhile, is 1-9 in their last 10 as road underdogs with seven losses by multiple runs.

Liberatore is due for a poor outing. At +155, I love the odds on Philly to hand one to him.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+155)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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