Cardinals vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 3 (Wheeler is Automatic at Home)
By Joe Summers
After splitting the first two games of the series, the 41-38 Philadelphia Phillies and 44-36 St. Louis Cardinals square off on Sunday Night Baseball at 7:08 PM EST.
We've got an excellent pitching matchup in store as Zack Wheeler battles Adam Wainwright.
Wheeler is exceptional at home, compiling a 1.85 ERA with five consecutive quality starts. Not to be outdone, Wainwright is coming off seven shutout innings against the Marlins and sports a 3.07 ERA on the season.
Will the Phillies hold serve at home on national television or will Wainwright give St. Louis a road series win?
Before we find the value in this Cardinals vs Phillies Sunday Night Baseball matchup, let's first look at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:
Cardinals vs Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Cardinals +1.5 (-160)
- Phillies -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline:
- Cardinals: +140
- Phillies: -150
Total:
- 7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Cardinals vs Phillies Prediction and Pick
At the surface, this looks like an even pitching matchup. But once you dig a bit deeper, it's obvious Zack Wheeler gives the Phillies a considerable advantage over Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals.
From @EliasSports: Over his three seasons with the Phillies, Zack Wheeler is 15–7 with a 2.26 ERA in 33 starts at Citizens Bank Park. That is the lowest home ERA in the majors over that span (minimum: 125 innings).
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 3, 2022
Wheeler hasn't given up more than three runs in a start since April 23rd, and his 2.90 expected ERA is the 12th-best mark among all qualified pitchers. Over his last six home starts, Wheeler has a 1.15 ERA. That's a truly ridiculous number.
Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright is lucky to only have a 3.07 ERA. His expected ERA is more than a run higher, at 4.21, and he has a 5.00 ERA over his last three road starts. One look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile tells us he's not the same elite guy:
As a point of comparison, here's Wheeler's MLB Statcast Pitching Profile:
Yeah, just a little different. The Phillies are 9-4 in their last 13 as home favorites while the Cardinals are 2-9 over their last 11 as road underdogs. Roll with the vastly superior pitcher at home on Sunday Night Baseball.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+130)
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.