Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 24 (Do Reds Have Pitching Edge?)

The Cardinals and Reds are likely growing sick of each other. They'll square off for the fifth consecutive game today. St. Louis won three of the first four and have to feel good about sending Miles Mikolas to the hill to conclude the series.

Mikolas has a 2.45 ERA this month and allowed two or fewer runs in 17 of his 19 starts this season. He's been fantastic, though his underlying metrics suggest he's been a bit lucky.

Tyler Mahle could borrow some of that luck, as his 3.25 expected ERA implies his 4.48 actual ERA is a mirage. Mahle is 0-5 with a 4.99 ERA at home, though he's limited his opponent to three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts at the Great American Ball Park.

Can Mahle turn his luck around or will St. Louis end the weekend with an exclamation point in a convincing win?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook before we analyze this Cardinals vs Reds matchup:

Cardinals vs Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Cardinals -1.5 (+105)
• Reds +1.5 (-125)

Moneyline:

• Cardinals: -146
• Reds: -136

Total:

• 9.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Cardinals vs Reds Prediction and Pick

The Cardinals may have the better record, the MVP-favorite in Paul Goldschmidt, the better defense and the better bullpen, but I think there's ample reason to back the Reds as home underdogs today.

Believe it or not, but Tyler Mahle gives the Reds a pitching advantage over Miles Mikolas. Mahle's 3.25 expected ERA is actually better than Mikolas' 3.65 number, and the Reds just saw Mikolas a few days ago. They only scored one run over seven innings, but Cincy's lineup performs dramatically better at home than on the road.

At home, the Reds rank eighth league-wide in OPS. On the road, they plummet to 29th. That helps explain why they've won four of their last five as home underdogs.

This is just Mahle's second start this month as he's coming off the 15-day Injured List, but I think he'll be rejuvenated and come out firing. Despite his 4.48 ERA, I promise he's been good this year. Just look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile:

See, pretty good! He may be intriguing to a contending team in need of rotation help, so we should get his best effort against a Cardinals' lineup that ranks just 21st in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks. To drive the point home that Mahle has an edge over Mikolas, take a peak at Mikolas' Statcast Pitching Profile:

I rest my case. I'll admit I'm not brave enough to bet the Reds over the full game, as their bullpen is far-and-away the worst in MLB. Instead, I'll back them at plus odds in the first five innings to maximize the advantage Mahle gives me. It's time for regression for both pitchers, so let's get on the right side of it.

Pick: Reds First Five Innings (+120)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.