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Cardinals vs. Rockies Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, August 10 (How to Play Total in Colorado)

By Peter Dewey

Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland.
Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
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The St. Louis Cardinals have just a one-game lead in the NL Central despite winning eight of their last 10 games, which makes Wednesday’s matchup against the Colorado Rockies a huge one. 

Newly-acquired lefty Jose Quintana will make his second start for the Cards after he tossed six innings of one-run ball against the Chicago Cubs in his first outing with the team. 

The Rockies have a lefty of their own on the mound. Kyle Freeland (7-7, 4.56 ERA) has helped lead the Rockies to four straight wins, but things are going to be much tougher against a strong St. Louis offense. 

Here are the odds from WynnBET: 

Cardinals vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Cardinals: -1.5 (+100)
  • Rockies: +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline:

  • Cardinals: -146
  • Rockies: +136

Total: 

  • 12 (Over -115/Under -105)

Cardinals vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

This may seem like a crazy total for this game, but both of these teams are dominant against lefties, ranking third (Colorado) and fifth (St. Louis) in OPS against left-handed pitching in 2022. 

The Rockies have struggled in the bullpen this season, ranking 29th in bullpen ERA (4.72) this season. Because of that, I’m going to focus on the first five innings for what I believe could be a value bet. 

Usually, first five inning totals are around 3.5 to 4.5, but this game has one at 6.5 (Over +100/Under -120).

Even though these teams hit lefties well, Quintana and Freeland are in some of their best form entering this game, and 6.5 runs may be just a little too high. Quintana has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine games. 

Freeland hasn’t been as good, allowing three or fewer earned runs in five of his last eight starts, but that’s still a solid floor to build off of. 

Maybe this game turns into a shootout, but I see that falling on Colorado’s bullpen more than anything. 6.5 is just too high for my liking early in this game. 

Lean: First Five Innings UNDER 6.5 (-120)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

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