Carlos Alcaraz-Garfia vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction and Odds for U.S. Open Semifinal (Trust Tiafoe For Upset)

Frances Tiafoe of the USA.
Frances Tiafoe of the USA. / Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

While Casper Ruud and Karen Khachanov are battling things out in the other semifinal, Carlos Alcaraz-Garfia and Frances Tiafoe will also be playing for a chance at the U.S. Open Final. Alcaraz-Garfia just beat Jannik Sinner in a classic five-set match to get here, while Tiafoe breezed through with another straight sets win.

Will Tiafoe get another clean sweep win, or is Alcaraz-Garfia the one that will end his "Cinderella" story?

Here are the odds for the matchup courtesy of FanDuel.

Carlos Alcaraz-Garfia vs. Frances Tiafoe Odds and Over/Under


  • Garfia: -194
  • Tiafoe: +160


  • Garfia: -3.5 (-118)
  • Tiafoe: +3.5 (-114) 

Game Total: 

  • 38.5 (Over: -135/ Under: -120)

Carlos Alcaraz-Garfia vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction and Pick

Garfia outlasted Sinner in the match of the tournament, but can he follow it up with another outstanding performance?

I don’t think so. 

I picked against Garfia in the quarters and I’m going to do so again in the semis.

Tiafoe has been dominant this entire tournament. He’s only lost one set and that was to Rafael Nadal. Despite being in tiebreak after tiebreak, he’s come out on top. He’s shown the ability to rise to the occasion and get the job done. 

Meanwhile, Alcaraz-Garfia is coming off consecutive five-set matches. He’s being pushed right now and I don’t think Tiafoe is the opponent he needs to see in order to get back on track. 

We won’t do anything too crazy, but back Tiafoe to make the Final.

Lean: Tiafoe ML +160

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.