Celtics Heavily Favored to Advance to NBA Finals Despite Heat Home Court Advantage
By Ben Heisler
The oddsmakers have seen enough from the Boston Celtics to determine that home court advantage in the NBA's Eastern Conference Finals may be a moot point.
Despite the series tied at 2-2, the Celtics are a slight 1.5-point road favorite in a pivotal Game 5 against the Miami Heat tonight. Boston's dominant 102-82 victory in Game 4 may be fresh in the minds of the betting public, but a large component here is the health status of several Heat players.
Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, P.J. Tucker and Tyler Herro are all listed as questionable heading into Game 5.
#BOSvsMIA INJURY UPDATE: Kyle Lowry (hamstring), Max Strus (hamstring), Gabe Vincent (hamstring), P.J. Tucker (knee) & Tyler Herro (groin) are all listed as questionable to play in tomorrow's Game 5 vs the Celtics.
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) May 24, 2022
As for the Celtics, they could be without two pivotal players as well, as two of their top defenders in Marcus Smart and Robert Williams remain questionable as well.
#NEBHInjuryReport for Game 5 vs. Miami:
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) May 24, 2022
Sam Hauser (right shoulder instability episode) - OUT
Marcus Smart (right ankle sprain) - QUESTIONABLE
Robert Williams (left knee soreness) - QUESTIONABLE
Over at WynnBET Sportsbook, the Celtics are heavily favored over the Heat to win the series. The oddsmakers have Boston at -175 to move onto the NBA Finals, with Miami at +145 to take two of the next three games.
Despite only one of a possible three remaining in Boston, does history back the Celtics here?
Celtics-Heat Game 5 Trends for Eastern Conference Finals
Via NBC Sports Boston, NBA teams that win Game 5 of a 2-2 best-of-7 playoff series go on to win the series 81.8 percent of the time (180-40).
The Celtics, historically, are 33-14 in best-of-7 series when tied at 2-2, and are 28-9 in those series when Game 5 is at home. On the road, however, they're just 5-4.
For Miami, according to Action Network's Matt Moore, the Heat are 10-2 straight up at home in Game 5's under head coach Erik Spolestra. He also points out that Miami is 9-5 both on the moneyline, as well as ATS when Jimmy Butler scores less than 20 points, including 2-0 at home in this postseason.
The Heat are 4-1 vs. the spread this season as a home underdog. Conversely, the Celtics have been outstanding road favorites this year at 16-7-0 ATS.
While BetSided's Peter Dewey expects Boston to come out of Miami up 3-2, pending the results of the latest injury report, I can't help but take the value on the Heat at plus-odds at home.
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