Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 1

A near College Football Playoff berth is a tough act to follow, but the 2022 Oklahoma State Cowboys will have the tough task of doing just that.

The team came a yard short of a Big 12 title and possibly the CFP in 2021, the best season Mike Gundy has had in Stillwater, and now he gets his veteran quarterback Spencer Sanders back. The Cowboys get their season underway at home against MAC contender Central Michigan, who is coming off a 9-4 season and have their QB back as well in Daniel Richardson.

The Pokes are laying a massive number in their home opener, is there value to be made on Thursday night? Here are the odds from consensus sportsbooks:

Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Central Michigan: +20.5 (-110)
• Oklahoma State: -20.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Central Michigan: +750
• Oklahoma State: -1400

Total:

• 57.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma State Betting Trends

• Under Jim McElwain, Central Michigan is 10-2 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog
• Since 2012, Oklahoma State is 49-15 straight up (SU) and 30-21-2 ATS as a home favorite
• Oklahoma State went 2-2 ATS in non-conference play

Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick

We have seen Oklahoma State struggle to put away inferior competition in the past. Just look at last season, they beat FCS Missouri State by seven and Tulsa by five. I wasn't a big believer in the 12-win Cowboys last season and believe they are primed for a step back this season.

Sanders doesn't inspire a ton of confidence in covering a massive spread. He is prone to turnovers (16:11 touchdown to interception ratio) and the Central Michigan defense was top 30 in the country last season in havoc rate and brings back 73% of their defense.

The Pokes played at a methodical pace and have a Power 5 team on deck in Arizona State, can this game be more of a rock fight? Well regarded defensive coordinator Jim Knowles left for Ohio State so there are questions on that side of the ball, but against a MAC offense I believe Oklahoma State's athleticism should get it a victory, but maybe not by a wide margin.

I bet the under at 58.5, and it's trickling down on game week. I wouldn't go below 56 in a game I project for 55 points, but this has all the makings of a low scoring affair in the opener.

PICK: UNDER 57.5

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