CFB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Alabama-Ole Miss, Washington-Oregon, TCU-Texas in Week 11

Nov 5, 2022; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) calls out during the
Nov 5, 2022; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) calls out during the / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

There are three weeks remaining in the college football regular season and the games continue to grow in meaning.

Week 11 has plenty of action and we at BetSided got you ready this week with a handful of betting previews across the national landscape. Below, we cover if Alabama can bounce back off of their heartbreaking loss at LSU last week as well as if Oregon and TCU can keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive against stiff competition.

Here are our best plays for three of the biggest games on the Week 11 card;

Alabama vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Nick Saban’s teams do not take losses lightly. The trends tell us that Alabama is 5-0 in their last five games following a straight up loss.

Last time the Crimson Tide lost was only a few weeks ago to Tennessee, and the next week they smashed Mississippi State, 30-6. That is likely the expectation this week, but there have been plenty of times this year where Alabama has looked vulnerable in games and maybe Kiffin will smell blood in the water. 

Bryce Young was still excellent down the stretch last week and he is never the concern for Alabama. Young will be great this week and so will Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield. The Crimson Tide will be able to score on an Ole Miss defense that allowed 28 to the lifeless Texas A&M offense two weeks ago and is 69th in the country in total defense. 

The Ole Miss offense should be able to hang in this game on paper, but they rely heavily on the rushing game and Quinshon Judkins. This week, Judkins will have a tough time against the 11th ranked run defense in college football and Will Anderson Jr. Alabama will be out for revenge after last week’s loss and that is bad news for a potentially overrated Ole Miss team. -- Josh Yourish

Pick: Alabama -11.5 (-105)

Washington vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

Washington has the No. 1 passing offense in the nation, thanks to Michael Penix Jr. throws for 370.2 yards per game. That could be a serious problem for Oregon and its 118th ranked passing defense. Washington is going to be able to put up points on the Ducks. For that reason and that reason alone, Oregon could be on upset alert. 

Oregon’s offense is more reliant on the run game. It has the 11th rushing offense in the country, averaging 231.2 yards per game. Washington is 23rd against the run, but allowed 175 yards on the ground in its last game against Oregon State. If the Huskies defense is stout against the Ducks rushing attack, then it will be up to Bo Nix to keep pace with Penix Jr. 

Nix is by far having the best season of his career. He had never completed more than 61% of his passes in a season, but this season he is completing 73.3% and has thrown a career high 22 touchdowns to just five interceptions. I didn’t trust him earlier in the year, but he is a different guy now. I think this is a clear letdown spot for Oregon with Utah on the schedule next week. The over is a good play, but I think Washington getting 13.5. -- Josh Yourish

Pick: Washington +13.5 (-110)

TCU vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

This might be the end of the line for the unbeaten Frogs, who are battling injuries in addition to a tough opponent on Saturday. Star wide receiver Quentin Johnson didn't finish the team's game against Texas Tech on Saturday and didn't practice early this week.

The Horned Frogs offense has been dynamite this season, ranked top 10 on an EPA/Play basis as Max Duggan has been outstanding as a dual threat quarterback. He has combined for over 2,300 yards and 28 touchdowns this season with only two interceptions. The TCU offense is second in yards per play and top 20 in explosive run and pass rate on the year.

While this Texas defense is shaky against explosive run plays, the offense should be able to match them with BIjan Robinson at running back, talent in the passing game and one of the best offensive minds in the sport in Steve Sarkisian.

The Longhorns are 19th in yards per play on the year and 22nd in success rate. The unit is dynamic and can win through the air and on the ground, but we have seen a trend develop with the Longhorns in 2022: start fast, finish slow.

The Longhorns dominate the scripted portion of the game, posting 23 points per game in the first half this season, the fifth highest mark in the country. However, in the second half of games, they fall to 66th, averaging just 13. We saw Oklahoma State rally to beat Texas at home a few weeks ago and the Longhorns nearly squandered a 21-point second half lead against Kansas State last week.

TCU has been known for their second half heroics, the team is averaging nearly 20 points per game in the second half of games this season, the fifth highest mark nationally, so I'll attack this game by taking Texas first half to get off to a strong start. -- Reed Wallach

Pick: Texas First Half -4

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.