Champions League Final Odds, Preview, Best Bets: Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid

A whole year of European football has officially been distilled down to one game; the UEFA Champions League final is all that remains before a huge summer of international competition.

Real Madrid are in quite familiar territory, but while Borussia Dortmund have been on this stage before, it's not quite as routine for them, and certainly nowhere near as expected of a development that they've made it this far.

Regardless of pedigree or brand name, these two teams have established their respective brands of playing electrifying football down to the last moment, and should provide us with a pulsating final.

Of course, with a great matchup comes the opportunity to find great betting value, so let's talk about what to expect for this game and how we can capitalize as bettors.

All odds from DraftKings and accurate as of 1:30 pm Eastern on 5/31/24

Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Dortmund: +0.5 (+125)
• Real Madrid: -0.5 (-170)

Moneyline (Three-Way)

• Dortmund: +425
• Real Madrid: -155
• Draw: +320

Total: 2.5 (Over -140/Under +110)

To Lift the Cup

• Dortmund: +250
• Real Madrid: -330

Hey Jude, don't break our hearts

We'll start off by talking about the elephant in the room -- Real Madrid's Ballon D'Or candidate Jude Bellingham facing off against his former club Dortmund in his first season after departing.

While Bellingham's stats are respectable, what really stands out is the way he's accumulated them; seemingly always in the last moment, when his club needs goals the most.

So, will Bellingham provide a late dagger against his old club? And is there a way to bet on Bellingham as he takes the biggest stage yet?

His anytime goal scorer prop probably isn't enough value at +140 odds -- you're probably better off betting on UCL specialist Vinicius Jr. with a line of +130.

If anything, you'll want to bet on Bellingham's +450 odds to score the final goal.

As we'll discuss in a moment, there haven't been many goals in recent UCL finals, so any goal has a strong likelihood of being the game's last, and of course this is doubly true for Bellingham given his late-game exploits.

Another way to bet on Bellingham would be a "shot on target" prop. He's -200 to record at least one, but +240 to rack up a pair, a major value-providing jump. If you want a single bet, the two-shots prop is the only real choice, but Bellingham is almost a sure thing to try for at least one big strike against his old team, so the -200 line could be a good parlay piece.

A low-scoring affair between traditionally high-octane teams

Each of the past four UCL finals have finished with a 1-0 score. These finals have been fought between teams that embody extremely diverse styles, yet they've all ended the same way, as the gameplay almost always turns out to be cagey with the stakes so high.

However, the goalscoring total for this game is set at 2.5, with a bit of juice on the over no less.

So surely, something about these two teams is special enough to imply that the trend will be snapped, right?

Well, not really.

It's worth noting that a very similar Real Madrid to this one was one of those recent 1-0 winners, and not because they were a low-scoring club in general; Carlo Ancelotti's squad that season scored 80 goals in La Liga, not all that far off from this season's total of 80, and snapped off 11 goals between the quarter and semi-final ties, a very strong four matches of attacking football against elite English clubs.

This year's Dortmund is also somewhat less explosive than usual. They've had some relatively pedestrian scoring efforts in the UCL, and finished fifth in the Bundesliga with 68 goals, compared to second with 83 a year ago.

Whether it's Vinicius Jr.'s second UCL-winning strike, a poetic finish to a distinguished Dortmund career for Marco Reus, yet another late "Belligol," or a score from a less-predictable source, expect just one big moment to define this match yet again. Even if that goal is answered in dramatic fashion to level the score 1-1, it's worth noting that this bet settles in regulation, so a high-scoring overtime like 2014's won't break your bet.

We've read this book before

That being said, overtime doesn't seem all that likely.

Madrid's late-game heroics this year have frequently come before the 90 minutes of play plus stoppage time come to a close, and we haven't seen a UCL final go past that barrier since 2016. Interestingly enough, each of the past two 90-minute draws in UCL finals were special editions of the highly intense rivalry between Real and Atlético Madrid; the last overtime final that did not feature this exact matchup was back in 2012 when Chelsea took down Bayern Munich for their first title.

Simply put, Madrid belong here much more than Dortmund.

Los Blancos came through the much tougher side of the bracket, while the Yellow Wall has arguably only stayed standing this long because of a soft draw. Every performance-based metric indicates that Real should cruise, and while Dortmund certainly should not let this become a blowout, it's similarly hard to imagine them hanging in there for 90 minutes, matching Madrid blow for blow.

There's also a measure of "been here before," both historically and in terms of the current regimes. Madrid have reached 17 European Cup finals and won a ridiculous 14 of them, including an unfathomable eight in a row, dating back to 1981. Meanwhile, Dortmund are just 1-1 in UCL finals, a win in 1997 and the loss to Bayern in 2013.

Madrid are also led by the greatest UCL manager of all time, Carlo Ancelotti. His four UCL titles are the most of any manager ever, as he captured a pair with Milan in the 2000s and two more with Madrid in 2014 and 2022. That's more or less three entirely different teams he's steered to a title, with just one final loss mixed in- the result of a legendary but ultimately quite fluky comeback by Liverpool in 2005.

Real Madrid have -155 odds to win this game in regulation, and while it's not the flashiest bet, it's probably a wise one. You might do well to wait for more favorable live odds, as Madrid will probably wait for some drama to be injected into the game before sinking the nails into the coffin, but this value is perfectly acceptable if you'd prefer pre-kickoff investments.

PICK:Under 2.5 Goals (+110)

Additional recommended wagers: Madrid 90-minute moneyline (-155), Jude Bellingham final goalscorer (+450, quarter-unit play), Vinicius Jr. anytime goalscorer (+130, half-unit play)