Charleston vs. UNC Wilmington Prediction and Odds for CAA Semifinal (Take Seahawks Upset)

The 22-8 UNC Wilmington Seahawks topped the College of Charleston twice in the regular season and hope for a third straight victory as they take on the 17-14 Cougars in the CAA Semifinals tonight at 8:30 PM EST.

Both teams have been friendly to bettors. UNC Wilmington has covered the spread in 16 of their last 20 games while the Cougars have covered in five straight with the over hitting in all five.

Can the Seahawks advance to the finals as a short underdog, or will the College of Charleston's offense prove too deadly?

Let's take a gander at the odds via WynnBET:

Charleston vs UNC Wilmington Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Charleston -1.5 (-110)
• UNC Wilmington +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Charleston: -125
• UNC Wilmington: +105

Total:

• 148.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Charleston vs UNC Wilmington Prediction and Pick

The Seahawks have been one of my favorite teams to bet all year and I don't intend to stop now. They've won four straight and have been downright unbelievable as an underdog.

UNC Wilmington is 11-1 ATS in their last dozen as an underdog and won 10 of those outright. Charleston, meanwhile, is just 4-8 ATS in their previous dozen as a favorite and lost twice already to these Seahawks.

It's difficult to beat a team three times in one calendar year, sure, but UNC Wilmington has some schematic advantages that tilt this matchup in their favor.

Charleston is an excellent offensive team, ranking in the 99th percentile via CBB Analytics in offensive rating over their last five, but they're in just the 1st percentile in turnovers in that same time frame. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are in the 99th percentile in turnover rate over their last five and have been disruptive on defense, ranking in the 90th percentile in steal percentage and 93rd in block rate.

They'll make Charleston's offense uncomfortable and should force enough turnovers and bad shots to push the ball in transition and punish a Cougars defense that's in the 5th percentile in defensive rating over their last five contests.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Betting on UNC Wilmington as an underdog is so far from broke it's making us rich. So let's stay making money and side with the team that's been perhaps the best in all of college basketball at overcoming the odds. Give me the Seahawks to advance and keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive.

Pick: UNC Wilmington +105

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.