Chicago Bears 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

After three seasons of the Matt Nagy era, Chicago Bears fans are still waiting for the new age offense that they were promised back in 2018.

A 12-4 season in his rookie year was highlighted by a championship caliber defense leading the NFL in takeaways. Many of the team’s offensive flaws were effectively hidden as a result of their success on the other side of the ball.

But in 2019, Mitchell Trubisky entered his third season in the league, to which Nagy claimed he was entering “Football 202” of his offense, and that a monumental leap would be coming. 

It never came. 

Trubisky saw his touchdowns cut from 24 to 17, and his completion percentage, passing yards and rushing yards take a drastic hit, and the Bears fell to 8-8, missing the postseason. Much of the same took place in 2020, with Nagy eventually demoting himself as play caller, and simplifying the offense to heavy play-action and cutting the field in half for Trubisky under Bill Lazor. Trubisky played better, but it still felt like it was on the road to nowhere with another 8-8 season and a demoralizing Wild Card loss to the New Orleans Saints.

Not all the struggles can all be attributed to Nagy. He didn’t draft Mitchell Trubisky with the second overall pick and the crumbling offensive line in front of him. But after two straight years of quarterback regression, Nagy and Pace were granted a do-over by ownership and traded up to select Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields at No. 11.

While the coach and GM may have bought themselves more time with another first round rookie quarterback, a mistake not typically afforded to most head coaches and executives, Bears fans need to see the offense look competent, especially as the defense begins to transition out of its prime years.

Chicago Bears 2021 Team Outlook

No disrespect to Sid Luckman, but when the Bears quarterback between 1939-1950 remains the top name still discussed amongst all-time Chicago quarterbacks, it’s an indication of a franchise starved for any sort of exceptional quarterback play. That’s why Bears fans don’t feel compelled to give free agent signing Andy Dalton much wiggle room, especially knowing that Fields is right behind him on the depth chart. Dalton is a 10-year veteran who’s thrown for 218 TDs and 126 INTs over his career. He’s 74-66-2 over his career, so he’s not a scrub, but he’s not the long-term answer at the team’s most important position.

Fields, along with No. 1 draft pick Trevor Lawrence never lost a regular season game in his two years at Ohio State, runs a 4.4 40-yard dash, and was one of the most accurate deep ball passers in history. On 30-plus yard throws, Fields threw for 18 touchdowns, zero picks, and had a passing grade of 95.7. Regardless of whoever is the “QB1,” at the start of the season, Fields is the future of the Bears, and Bears fans are ready for the future to begin now.

As for the rest of the offense, running back David Montgomery was terrific in the second half of 2020. After failing to go above 100 rushing yards until Week 11, Montgomery averaged 99.7 rushing yards per game the final six weeks of the season, scoring seven of his eight touchdowns. With Tarik Cohen continuing to rehab from his ACL injury, the Bears will also look to integrate free agent back Damien Williams into the mix, after his successful stint in Kansas City with the same offense.

At receiver, Allen Robinson returns for likely his last year in Chicago after the Bears put the franchise tag on him. Despite worsening quarterback play, Robinson improved every season he was in Chicago, finishing 2020 with 102 receptions for 1,250 yards and 6 TDs. Darnell Mooney opened several eyes during his rookie season as a 5th round pick out of Tulane, finishing second in receptions and receiving yards behind Robinson. Marquise Goodwin, Riley Ridley and Damiere Byrd remain the top candidates to land the WR3 spot, after former second round pick Anthony Miller was shipped to Houston this offseason. At tight end, last year’s second round pick Cole Kmet could have a chance to break out in Nagy’s tight end friendly offense. He’ll still split snaps with veteran Jimmy Graham who led Chicago with 8 TDs a season ago.

The Bears’ offensive line could be an issue for whoever is under center. Left tackle is still unknown as second round pick Teven Jenkins continues to deal with back issues all throughout training camp. The Bears also drafted Missouri lineman Larry Borom out of Missouri in the 5th round, but right now, Elijah Wilkinson will get the first crack on the outside along with last year’s seventh round pick, Lachavious Simmons at right tackle. Inside, the Bears feel a bit more secure, as Cody Whitehair returns to left guard, a much more comfortable spot than at center, where Sam Mustipher is set to return. James Daniels missed 11 games last season for the Bears, but the former 39th overall pick should be good to go at right guard. Chicago also just signed longtime Eagles tackle Jason Peters to a one year deal.

Defensively, new defensive coordinator Sean Desai takes over for the retired Chuck Pagano, and will put a strong emphasis on pressure and takeaways. Starting up front, when healthy, the Bears front three are amongst the best in the NFL with Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman and Bilal Nichols leading the charge. Chicago also signed run stopping specialist Mike Pennel to help add more stability. 

At linebacker, Khalil Mack fought through multiple injuries throughout much of 2020, but still led the Bears with nine sacks. Chicago needs more from their defensive star, after two consecutive years of single digit sacks. He’ll get there if their other edge rusher, Robert Quinn can play better after a rough first year in Chicago; recording just 20 total tackles and two sacks. Roquan Smith remains one of the elite inside linebackers in the league, and will pair up once again with veteran Danny Trevathan who now approaches the wrong side of 30.

Lastly, in the secondary, the Bears need to do a better job of taking the ball away. In 2020, they tied for fourth worst in the league with 10 interceptions, just two seasons removed from 27 back in 2018. It won’t be easy with the loss of Kyle Fuller to Denver, but rookie Jaylon Johnson was exceptional his first year and will team up with free agent Desmond Trufant on the outside. Safety Eddie Jackson needs to become the ball hawking playmaker the Bears thought they locked up to a long term deal, recording no picks a season ago. Veteran Tashaun Gipson returns to the Bears after a solid 2020 campaign. 

Chicago Bears 2021 NFL Draft

Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields fell into Chicago’s lap at No. 11, trading up from Pick 20 with the New York Giants to select another first round quarterback since Trubisky in 2017. Unlike the Trubisky pick, which came with several question marks regarding his experience at the collegiate level, the same cannot be said for Fields who took the Buckeyes to two consecutive College Football Playoffs, putting on a performance for the ages against Trevor Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers in the semifinals this season.

Their second round pick, Oklahoma State offensive lineman Teven Jenkins felt like a steal for Chicago at the time as a projected mid to late first rounder. However, Jenkins has had lingering back issues that have kept him off the field for the last several weeks, with no updated timetable in sight for his return. The Bears added more depth to the offensive line with fellow tackle Larry Borom out of Missouri, and added some playmakers to the offense in the sixth round with Virginia Tech running back Khalil Herbert and North Carolina wide receiver Dazz Newsome.

Chicago Bears Team Odds: Division (+400), Conference (+2200), Super Bowl (+6000)

The Bears’ divisional odds at WynnBET Sportsbook remain at +400 since the Packers became favorites in the division with Aaron Rodgers’ return. Green Bay leads the division at -145 odds, followed by the Vikings (+250). The Lions round out the pack with odds of +2000 to surprise as division winners.

Should the Bears make it to the NFC Championship game, bettors would cash in at +2200, or 22/1 odds. Oddsmakers tend to see that as a much more likely possibility than a Super Bowl victory, nearly tripling the odds for a championship at odds of +6000, or 60/1.

Chicago Bears Regular Season Win Total: 7.5 WINS | OVER (-110), UNDER (-110)

Ben Heisler: 

If the Bears were a poker player, you could see their tell coming from a mile away since the beginning of the season. Despite multiple attempts to land Russell Wilson via trade from Seattle, as well as inquiring about Deshaun Watson in the early portion of the offseason, Chicago still went all-in and somehow “flopped the nut straight” with Justin Fields falling to No. 11 after both Carolina and Denver passed on Fields for two cornerbacks. 

Sometimes, you’d rather be lucky than good, but I’d also like to see the Bears be good! The athletic ability is top notch, his deep ball passing is exceptional, and there’s a newfound swag at the quarterback position that Bears fans haven’t seen since Jim McMahon in the mid 1980’s.

Matt Nagy has said on multiple occasions that they want to ease Fields in the way the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes his rookie year. Only difference? Alex Smith was a stable presence with plenty of job security and improving each season in Andy Reid’s offense. Fields’ arrival on the gridiron will likely go hand-in-hand with how Nagy views his future. With each week that Andy Dalton doesn’t deliver, more pressure will come down on the Bears head coach to send in his franchise QB. That’s not a good recipe for success. 

Ultimately, I believe in Fields and I believe in Nagy with talented quarterbacks. The Bears defense remains a very good unit when healthy, and I think the combined forces together can produce a winning season in Chicago. Fields will have his rookie moments, but if he’s the talent that the Bears front office and coaching staff believes he is, then the clock starts now.

PREDICTION: OVER 7.5 WINS (-110)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS (+450)

Donnavan Smoot:

The Chicago Bears have been one of the most interesting teams to watch this offseason. They finally realized, after decades of trying to ignore the fact, they needed a quarterback to succeed. With that came a dash to try and steal Russell Wilson, the signing of Andy Dalton and the drafting of Justin Fields. 

In the preseason, it’s clear that Fields has more potential than Dalton, but the Bears have stuck with Dalton moving forward. The Bears’ surrounding roster is a good one, which puts pressure on whichever quarterback gets the job to make the most of the situation. I’m on the Justin Fields train and think he should be the starter eventually, and I believe that will happen. 

The Bears went 8-8 with Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky running the show. If they can get better quarterback play, the Bears could be more than just a fringe playoff team. 

Chicago was the 12th-best team against the pass last season, which is needed in a division with Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson -- and of course Aaron Rodgers. The Bears were middle of the pack in points allowed, but sat just outside the top 10 in yards allowed. Chicago just needs to tighten up and that defense can easily be in the top 10. 

I think the Bears have a high floor regardless of who their quarterback is. If (when) Matt Nagy decides to go with Fields, Chicago will benefit even more.

PREDICTION: OVER 7.5 WINS (-110)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS (+450)

Peter Dewey: 

Andy Dalton or Justin Fields?

That is the question Matt Nagy has to answer, and while Bears fans will overwhelmingly tell you that Fields should start, it doesn’t seem like he’s going to get the nod in Week 1 just yet. 

Chicago was 8-8 in 2020 with Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles, but it doesn’t feel like Dalton is much of an upgrade of either of those players. Dalton was just 4-5 for the Dallas Cowboys last season filling in for Dak Prescott, and if he starts the majority of the games, the Bears will likely have a similar fate. 

I think Fields makes starts this season, and I hope they’re sooner rather than later after his impressive start to the preseason, but the Bears have gone through a lot of turnover on their roster heading into this season. 

Charles Leno and Bobby Massie are gone from the offensive line, Kyle Fuller is gone from the secondary and Anthony Miller is now a Texan. These moves could prove to be beneficial, but the cap crunch this offseason left the Bears with a bunch of question marks, especially on the offensive line heading into the season.

Even if Fields plays the majority of the year there will likely be growing pains, and I don’t see the Bears roster being good enough to sneak into the playoffs like they did in 2020. 

PREDICTION: OVER 7.5 WINS (-110)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 8 WINS (+400)

Iain MacMillan:

The Chicago Bears were sitting pretty at 5-1 in late October last season, and then I announced to the world that the Bears were frauds. I was right.

Chicago went on to lose six straight games, and they finished with an 8-8 record, but somehow made the playoffs but then got crushed by the New Orleans Saints in the wild card round.

The Bears have never had a strong offense in the history of their franchise, but the years that they’ve been successful, they’ve had an extremely strong defense and an offense that was, at the very least, competent. Last year’s offense led by Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky was far from competent, and their defense was completely average.

Chicago’s defense ranked 13th in opponent points per game (23) and 11th in opponent yards per game (347.3). While certainly not terrible, it’s not good enough to make the team a contender.

Now the Bears have their potential quarterback of the future in Justin Fields, but Matt Nagy will stick to his guns and start Andy Dalton. At this point, I truly think Nagy’s ego is so huge that he purposely does the opposite of what fans want him to do, just so he can show them that it’s his call and he’s the one in charge.

Fields could prove to be the quarterback Chicago has been searching for throughout the past four decades, but it won’t make much of an impact this year on a largely unimproved team from 2020. 

PREDICTION: UNDER 7.5 WINS (-110)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 5 WINS (+1000)

Will the Chicago Bears Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-240), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (+175)

Ben Heisler: 

Matt Nagy, despite his inconsistency with developing an offense has never finished with a losing record. Granted, two of the three years as Bears head coach have been 8-8, but I don’t think it’s too much of a reach to expect them to win an extra game with a far more talented quarterback.

However, I think Nagy’s insistence on Dalton starting could lead to the Bears missing the playoffs, even if it means Fields’ development comes along smoother. By the time Fields gets in, the Bears could make a run, but I don’t see a 9-8 record getting it done this year in a tough NFC.

PREDICTION: NO (-240)

Donnavan Smoot:

Chicago snuck into the playoffs last year at 8-8. However, let’s not forget it started the season 5-1. I don’t see the Bears losing six straight games and completely falling off the rails. As I said earlier, I think Justin Fields will eventually take over the starting job at quarterback, which will lead to a playoff berth. Even if Dalton remains the quarterback for a majority of the season, the Bears should be able to make it through a less than ideal schedule.

The bottom of the NFC is going to be an interesting race. The NFC West is going to have a lot of say as to who gets the final one or two spots, but I think the Bears will also keep a few teams out of the playoffs. 

Although they have the potential to start slow or have a few distractions, Chicago will get through it and make the postseason again.

PREDICTION: YES (+175)

Peter Dewey:  

It would be a great storyline if Fields, who fell in the 2021 NFL Draft, came in and led the Bears to the playoffs, but I don’t know if he will get the chance to do so. 

The Bears seem content with Dalton, and there’s a chance things could get out of hand before Fields is even given the reins to the team. Last year, Chicago nearly collapsed after a 5-1 start, and they still barely made the postseason. 

Chicago’s defense isn’t the same as the team that went 12-4 and won the division in 2018, and the Bears are going to need to hope that whoever is at quarterback exceeds expectations to make the playoffs. 

With eight games against playoff teams from last season, the Bears have a tough schedule for that to happen, so I’m taking them to miss the postseason in 2021.

PREDICTION: NO (-240)

Iain MacMillan:

The Chicago Bears will be the third best team in the NFC North behind the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings, so no, they will not be in the playoffs this season.

Before any real change happens in Chicago, Matt Nagy needs to be shown the door. His complete mismanagement of games and the clear evidence that he lets his ego get in the way of decisions is hurting this football team.

The only hope that the Bears have this season is for Justin Fields to get the starting job early in the season and he turns out to be one of the all time best rookie quarterbacks. Unfortunately, it looks like they’ll ride with Andy Dalton at the beginning of the season, which will end the playoff hopes for the Bears early.

PREDICTION: NO (-240)

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Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Check back Tuesday at 1 p.m. EDT when we preview the betting outlook for the Detroit Lions and check out our earlier team-by-team betting previews.

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