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Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 18

By Matt De Saro

With Denver out of the playoffs and KC guaranteed a berth, the pair might choose to rest their starters a bit in Week 18. Albeit for different reasons
With Denver out of the playoffs and KC guaranteed a berth, the pair might choose to rest their starters a bit in Week 18. Albeit for different reasons / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
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The Kanas City Chiefs have fallen out of the top spot in the AFC playoff standings after losing to Cincinnati in Week 17 and the Titans beat the Dolphins. Both teams are now 11-5 but Tennessee holds the tie break over KC based on win percentage. Now, this week’s game against the Denver Broncos becomes very important for the Chiefs' chances to earn a bye in round 1. 

Denver, meanwhile, got knocked out of playoff contention last week after losing handily to the Los Angeles Chargers 34-13 yesterday. It was the third loss in a row for the Broncos and they failed to cover as 8.5 point underdogs. Drew Lock had a decent game and went 18-for-25 with 245 yards and a touchdown. The problem was that that, along with starting QB Teddy Bridgewater, five defensive starters were out for various reasons yesterday. The Broncos never had a shot. 

Here are the odds for this Week 18 finale, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Chiefs vs. Broncos, Spread, and Total Odds

Spread:

  • Chiefs: -9.5 (-110)
  • Broncos: +9.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Chiefs: -450
  • Broncos: +350

Total:

  • 44 (Over -110/Under -110)

Chiefs vs. Broncos Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs are 5-14-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 20 games. 
  • The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up (SU) in their last six games.   
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six games between these two teams. 
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five road games at Denver. 
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Broncos' last five games. 
  • The Broncos are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games against the Chiefs.
  • The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the AFC. 

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction and Pick

Denver has not beaten the Chiefs outright since 2015 and was already beaten easily by KC in Wee 13. With a closing spread of 8.5 points, The Chiefs managed a 22-9 victory. It was the Chiefs' fourth ATS win over the Broncos in their last five games with the UNDER 4-1 in that span. 

The big question for me heading into this game is whether or not the Chiefs go balls to the wall to get the No. 1 seed or choose to rest their starters if they build a big lead. Or, if they go down big to be fair. While the Chiefs should win this game with relative ease, the final score might be closer than we want if And Reid chooses to not push his luck too much in the second half.  

On the flip side, the Broncos could use this game as a chance to evaluate talent that hasn’t seen a lot of real-game action this season.

One additional issue that the Broncos will have to deal with is an injury to Lock. After Lock suffered a shoulder injury in Week 17, the Broncos might turn to Brett Rypien to start with Tedd Bridgewater still dealing with a concussion. 

I think that the possibility of both teams limited starter minutes, this could be a good shot to score a win on the UNDER. The total has gone UNDER in the last five games in a row for the Broncos and also 5-1 in the last six games these two teams have played. 

Pick: Chiefs vs Broncos UNDER 44 (-110)