Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Don't Rely on Tampa Bay's Offense

The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face off in a marquee matchup on Sunday Night Football in Week 4 of the NFL season.

It could be the final iteration of Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady, so this is a game you're not going to want to miss. The two quarterbacks have face off five times in their career, and Brady holds the 3-2 advantage, with his latest win over Mahomes occuring at Super Bowl LV when he and the Buccaneers defeated the Chiefs.

Let's take a look at the latest odds for tonight's big game.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, and Total

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, and Total Movement

The Chiefs originally opened as 2.5-point favorites, but the line has flipped over three points, and now the Buccaneers are 1-point favorites. The total has dropped two points, from 47.5 to 45.5.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Prediction and Best Bet

I have no interest in betting on the Buccaneers until they can prove to me that they can be a competent offense. I bet you didn't know that this team averages fewer yards per offensive play than teams like the New York Jets, New York Giants and the Chicago Bears. That's right, the Buccaneers are averaging fewer yards per play than the laughing stock of the NFL.

Sure, Tampa Bay has a good defense that will carry it at times this season, but Kansas City also has a strong defensive unit. The Buccaneers rank fourth in opponent yards per play through the first three weeks, but the Chiefs rank right behind them at fifth in opponent yards per play.

With comparable defenses, but a huge offensive advantage for the Chiefs, I'm going to back Patrick Mahomes to even up his career head-to-head record against Tom Brady.