Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 11 (Mahomes and Herbert will Look Human on SNF)

For the good of the football watching community, the Steelers and Bengals were mercifully flexed out of Sunday Night Football and replaced by this gem. The Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Los Angeles Chargers in primetime. KC is 7-2 after casually dispatching Jacksonville in Week 10, while a very banged up Chargers squad fell to San Francisco on Sunday Night Football, 22-16. 

Back in Week 2, the Chiefs pulled it out, 27-24, so can they win in this rivalry again and lock up the AFC West? Let’s check the odds and trends. 

Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds, Spread and Total

Kansas City and Los Angeles Betting Trends

• Kansas City is 3-5-1 ATS
• LA is 6-3 ATS
• The Over is 7-1 in Chiefs last 8 road games
• The Over is 8-2 in Chargers last 10 following a loss
• Road Team is 16-4-1 ATS in last 24 meetings

Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction and Pick

Brandon Staley’s defense was finally able to do it; slow down a run-first offense. San Fran still rushed for 157 yards, but only scored 22 points in the 22-16 49ers win. Now, Staley is back to what he is much more comfortable with. Going against a dynamic passing attack that wants to push the ball downfield. Staley has been essentially credited with putting two deep safeties to slow down a team like the Chiefs. He didn’t do it last time these teams met, but he might be better off this time around. 

Travis Kelce is obviously Patrick Mahomes’ favorite weapon, but Juju Smith-Schuster has been emerging as the No. 2 option. Smith Schuster is so good at running underneath routes and making tough, physical grabs to move the chains. However, Juju was knocked out of Week 10 with a concussion and will be in protocol all week. That feels like a significant loss to KC especially if Staley is going to force Mahomes to stay disciplined and throw the ball short. 

I expect the Chargers defense to slow down Mahomes and KC because of Andy Reid’s refusal to run the ball consistently. Last time these teams played Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for 9.2 yards per carry and yet only got eight carries. 

The Chargers offense will just be hoping to get back Keenan Allen or Mike Williams this week. Without them Justin Herbert and this offense have been pedestrian at best. 

Pick: Under 50.5 (-107)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change