Chiefs vs. Colts Prediction: Don’t Let Line Movement Scare You From Betting Kansas City
By Peter Dewey
It’s been a rough start to the 2022 season for Frank Reich and the Indianapolis Colts, as they tied the Houston Texans and then were promptly shut out in Week 2 by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Things don’t get any easier for Indy in Week 3, even at home, hosting the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. The former MVP leads the NFL in touchdown passes (seven) through the first two weeks of the season, and has improved his record in September to an impressive 13-2 in his career.
With the Chiefs set as road favorites, and by a good margin, how should we bet this game?
Here are the latest odds from FanDuel:
Chiefs vs. Colts Odds, Spread and Total
Chiefs vs. Colts Odds, Spread and Total Movement in NFL Week 3
There has been a lot of movement in this game, as the Colts opened at 3.5-point dogs, went all the way to 7, dropped down slightly to 6.5 and is now all the way down to 5.5. The total has gone down from 52 to 50.5 in this game.
Chiefs vs. Colts Best Bet and Prediction
This line is slowly creeping towards Indy, and I think that means it’s the best time to jump in and take it.
The Chiefs have dominated so far in the 2022 season, and they would have covered in Week 2 had Justin Herbert not thrown a garbage time touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
Mahomes looks as good as he ever has, which is even more impressive considering Tyreek Hill is in Miami. Kansas City ranks second in the NFL in yards per play this season while the Colts clock in at 19th through their first two games.
Indy lost in Week 2 partly because it went away from Jonathan Taylor (nine carries, 54 yards), and things may not be easy on the ground against Kansas City. The Chiefs are allowing just 3.9 yards per carry this season despite facing Austin Ekeler and James Conner through the first two weeks.
I would have bet this at 6.5, so getting the Chiefs at 5.5 seems like a discount against a reeling Colts team.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.