There was no rust for the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round as the No. 1 seed in the AFC cruised past the underdog Houston Texans, 34-10. Baltimore, led by MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson, is now one win away from its first Super Bowl appearance in over a decade. Can they get past the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs at home on Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite?
Kansas City has dispelled the doubters to get to the AFC Championship game for the sixth consecutive season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes had never played a true away game in the postseason, but led the Chiefs past the Bills, 27-24. Does he have another stellar road performance in him to get the Chiefs back in the Super Bowl?
Here’s a deep dive into props to consider for Sunday’s AFC title tilt and a same-game parlay to consider.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Same Game Parlay
- Justice Hills OVER 34.5 rushing yards
- Travis Kelce OVER 5.5 receptions
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 27.5 rushing yards
Same game parlay price: +525
Justice Hill OVER 34.5 rushing yards
Gus Edwards has the highest rushing yardage prop (41.5) of any member of the Ravens’ backfield, but Hill has been the more explosive back. Edwards ran 10 times for 40 yards in the win over Houston while Hill received the most work of Ravens’ runners with 66 yards on 13 attempts.
There will be a lot of bets on Lamar Jackson to soar past his rushing yardage line (63.5) after hitting triple digits and scoring twice on the ground against the Texans. Jackson’s explosiveness can’t be overlooked, but expect the Chiefs to go all-out trying to slow down the MVP favorite’s big plays.
Kansas City has been great against the pass this season but run defense has hurt the Chiefs. They survived it against the Bills, but Buffalo still churned out 182 yards on 39 carries. Bills’ running backs James Cook and Ty Johnson combined for 101 yards and expect the Ravens’ timeshare to duplicate that success. Hill saw 16 more snaps against Houston (39) than Edwards (23) and that trend should continue against a sub-par Kansas City run defense on Sunday.
Travis Kelce OVER 5.5 receptions
Kelce’s string of 1,000-yard seasons came to an end this year as the future Hall-of-Fame tight end finished 16 yards shy of that mark. When the playoffs come around, though, there is no one Mahomes trusts more than Kelce.
In two postseason games, Kelce has 12 catches for 146 yards and has been targeted 16 times. Dalton Schultz put together five catches for 43 yards against Baltimore last week and tight ends have had success against Baltimore this season, including George Kittle (7 catches, 126 yards), Trey McBride (10 catches, 95 yards) and David Njoku had two 6-catch performances.
Kelce’s down season has been rejuvenated in the postseason. He’ll be Mahomes’ go-to target again on Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 27.5 rushing yards
Mahomes’ ability to extend plays will be on full display against a Ravens defense that led the NFL in sacks this season and made Texans’ rookie C.J. Stroud abandon the pocket on the majority of his 36 dropbacks.
In big games, Mahomes is not afraid to use his legs to pick up critical first downs. He is averaging 27.7 rushing yards per game over his postseason career, but he’ll be an underdog Sunday in Baltimore trying to escape a ferocious Ravens’ pass rush. Mahomes went over this number against the Dolphins (41 yards) and ran six times against Buffalo last week but only got 19 yards after taking knees to end the game.
Mahomes needs to use his legs to avoid momentum-changing sacks and third-and-long situations, and he’ll use his legs to do it at M&T Bank Stadium.
Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.