Cincinnati vs. Houston Prediction and Odds: Back the Underdog

The No. 13 Houston Cougars are on a three-game win streak after a setback loss to the No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide two weeks back.

They are going to be hard-pressed to continue that success however after losing their leading scorer. The Cougars' Marcus Sasser, who was averaging 17.7 points per game, went down with a toe injury against Texas State and is done for the year. Their next leading scorer is senior guard Kyler Edwards at 12.5 points per game.

That is already a career-best for Edwards, so one has to wonder how much he has left even with the extra opportunities. 

The Bearcats, meanwhile, will be well-rested heading into their AAC debut game against rival Houston. The Bearcats are also on a three-game tear coming off a bad beat over Xavier. They also lost to No. 13 Arkansas but did beat a ranked Illinois team already this season.

The offense is led by David Dejulios and Jeremiah Davenport who average 12.5 and 12.4 points per game respectively. The Bearcats also have five guys who each average at least 4.1 boards per game. 

Here are the odds for this AAC matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Cincinnati vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Cincinnati +9.5 (-110)
• Houston -9.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Cincinnati +400
• Houston -525

Total:

• 128 (Over -110/Under -110)

Cincinnati vs. Houston and Pick

Despite being a ranked team with a better team on paper, the Houston Cougars are very hard to trust here. My biggest concern is the recent injury to their best offensive player.

What I didn’t mention above is that the Cougars also lost their third-best scorer recently in Tramon Mark. Mark was averaging 10.1 points per game before going down with a shoulder injury last week.

The pair were two major reasons that the Cougars made it to the Final Four last year and their absence will cause massive cohesion issues in the short term. Now, without their two offensive leaders, Houston will struggle to find the scoring success it once enjoyed.

When Sasser is on the court, Houston averaged 116 points per 100 possessions and shot over 41 percent from deep. Without him, the Cougars average 11 points less per 100 possessions and are shooting less than 28 percent from behind the arc. 

As much as I’d love to bet on an outright upset because of this, the Bearcats offense is not all that effective even with their best players on the court. I think that Houston struggles enough that the underdog covers, but the Cougars probably manage to eke out a win when all is said and done. 

Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats +9.5 (-110)