Cincinnati vs. Houston Prediction and Odds (Value on the Under)

Cincinnati travels to Houston to take on the AAC's top team, the Houston Cougars, in Tuesday night college basketball action.

The Bearcats will be looking forward to next season after they have dropped five of six games down the stretch and are massive betting underdogs to the first place Cougars on the road. Can first-year head coach Wes Miller get a valiant effort from his team on Tuesday, or will it be similar to the first meeting, a 22 point Houston victory?

Here are the odds for this conference matchup from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Cincinnati vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Cincinnati: +15 (-110)
• Houston: -15 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Cincinnati: +900
• Houston: -1600

Total: 135.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Cincinnati vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

Houston's defense is going to overwhelm the Bearcats on Tuesday night. The team is third in defensive effective field goal percentage and the visitors are a floundering 293rd in that metric on offense. The team runs a lot of isolation sets but lacks the dynamic ball handling to beat Houston's perimeter defense off the dribble.

Ultimately, Cincy takes a lot of three's with their inability to get inside. The club is inside the top 100 in 3-point rate and middling in rebounding rate.

However, Miller has his team playing fine ball on the defensive side, top 10 natioanlly in two-point field goal defense. That should actually set up quite well against a Houston team that generates a lot of their points from inside.

Houston likes to run in transition, but Cincy does a good job of limiting that attack and making it a half court style game.

Looking back at the early February matchup, the game went over the closing total of 131.5 with the 80-58 final. That game was about a month ago, but this total has shifted too many points in my opinion. The Cougars may have the No. 1 offense in the AAC, but shot 61% on two-point tries in that game against the vaunted Bearcats interior. Not to mention, the two teams combined to shoot 74% on 35 free throw attempts despite both being below 68% on the year.

I'm going to fade this increased total and will take a stab at the under in what should be more of a half court style game.

PICK: UNDER 135.5, play to 134.5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 77-74-3 for -1.35 units.