Clemson vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Elite Eight
By Reed Wallach
Clemson and Alabama meet on Saturday night in a surprising Elite Eight matchup.
Following a pair of upsets of the top two seeds in the West Region semifinals on Thursday, Clemson and Alabama play for a spot in the Final Four next weekend. Both offenses have been dynamic but it's been, but who can get enough stops to advance?
Here’s how I’m betting the Elite Eight on Saturday between Clemson and Alabama.
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Clemson vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total
Alabama vs. Clemson Betting Trends
- Clemson is 9-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Alabama is 17-9 ATS as a favorite this season
- Alabama has gone OVER in 26 of 35 games this season
Clemson vs. Alabama How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, March 30th
- Game Time: 8:49 PM EST
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
- How to Watch (TV): TBS
- Clemson Record: 24-11
- Alabama Record: 24-11
Clemson vs. Alabama Key Players to Watch
Clemson
Chase Hunter: Hunter has been the team’s best player in this NCAA Tournament run, scoring 18 or more in all three games while pitching in as a rebounder and a facilitator, dishing out at least five assists. Hunter will be tasked with matching up with Mark Sears on both ends, but the senior guard has proven that he has been up to the task, out-dueling the litany of high-level guards so far.
Alabama
Mark Sears: Sears was relatively quiet in the wild win over North Carolina, scoring only 18 points and dishing out two assists, but this is still the engine of the Crimson Tide offensive attack, averaging north of 21 points per game with four rebounds and four assists while shooting 50% from the field and 42% from beyond the arc.
Clemson vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick
A clash of styles meet in the West Regional Finals, and I’m going to side with the underdog.
It’s worth noting these two played in Tuscaloosa earlier this season, with Clemson shocking the Crimson Tide as considerable road underdogs. Clemson may not shoot 53% from the field again, but the team will be going up against a leaky Alabama defense that is 108th in effective field goal percentage allowed.
This game will test the depth of both teams in what should be a bruising affair as each team is prone to getting into foul trouble, but I’m going to side with Clemson’s transition denial as the edge that will keep this game within a possession.
Evident against Arizona, the Tigers made a point to get back on defense quickly and limit the Wildcats ability to run. While Alabama is more dynamic on offense than Arizona and more flammable from the perimeter (Arizona shot 17% on threes in the Sweet 16, now three straight tournament games that the opponent shot 25% or worse from beyond the arc for Clemson), the defense is also far worse.
Alabama is based around threes and layups under head coach Nate Oats, but Clemson has been outstanding in this regard all season, especially at the cup, where the team bolsters the third-best field goal percentage allowed at the rim.
The team won’t force turnovers, 341st in TO%, but the unit is elite on the defensive glass, top 60 in the country in DREB%.
I also struggle to see Alabama running away with this one with the team's inability to stay out of foul trouble. The Crimson Tide are 319th in opponent free throw rate and the Tigers are a top 10 free throw shooting unit in the country. With a dynamic weapon in PJ Hall that can play both inside and out as a floor spacer, the paint should be open for the likes of Chase Hunter to get into the teeth of the vulnerable Crimson Tide defense.
After a rousing upset win over North Carolina, remember that this Crimson Tide is as streaky as they come. The team is 291st in its consistency rating all season.
I’ll go with the more reliable Tigers to keep this within a possession.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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