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Clemson vs. North Carolina Prediction and Odds for ACC Championship Game (Can't Trust Tar Heels Defense)

By Reed Wallach

Nov 26, 2022; Clemson, SC, USA; Clemson wide receiver Beaux Collins (80), left, head coach Dabo
Nov 26, 2022; Clemson, SC, USA; Clemson wide receiver Beaux Collins (80), left, head coach Dabo / Anderson Independent Mail-USA TODAY
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The ACC Championship has lost a ton of luster after both Clemson and North Carolina ruined any shot of being dark horse College Football Playoff contenders by losing as home favorites last week, but they will still be gunning for conference supremacy.

Preseason conference title favorite, Clemson, takes on North Carolina, who has one of the most explosive offenses in the country with star quarterback Drake Maye and future NFL wide receiver Josh Downs in the ACC Championship Game.

North Carolina lost to two straight backup quarterbacks in as many weeks while Clemson lost as double digit home favorites to South Carolina, so assessing each team's mindset may be tricky, but there's a valubale bet to make on Saturday.

First, here's the odds:

Clemson vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

Clemson vs. North Carolina Betting Trends

  • North Carolina is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog
  • Clemson is 7-4-1 to the OVER this season
  • North Carolina has gone UNDER in three of four games

Clemson vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

Maye and Downs have offset one of the worst defenses in the country. The team is top 10 in EPA/Play on offense and bottom 10 on the defensive side of the ball. While the Tar Heels should be able to challenge a Clemson secondary that has struggled against explosive offenses like Wake Forest and South Carolina, I'm targeting the other side of the ball for my favorite play.

While D.J. UIagalelei leaves a ton to be desired as a passer, he knows how to orchestrate a strong running game with Will Shipley and a stout offensive line. The Tigers are top 30 nationally in line yards and have had little issue putting points on the board, averaging more than 34 points per game.

On the other side, North Carolina's defensive line is a serious issue, nearly outside the top 100 nationally and bottom five in tackles for loss this season. The Clemson offense will be pushing around North Carolina up front and opening up running lanes for Shipley and co. to rip off chunk plays.

I don't want to try and diagnose the psyche of each team after both team's have fallen off down the stretch, but I do want to attack the Clemson team total over. Notre Dame is a team that profiles similarly to Clemson, and they scored 45 points in Chapel Hill on more nearly six yards per carry earlier this season.

I don't know if the Tigers are going to slow down the Tar Heels offense to cover over a touchdown, but I'll target the Clemson team total over.

LEAN: Clemson Team Total OVER 37.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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