Cleveland Browns 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

The Kevin Stefanski era of Cleveland Browns football started about as poorly as possible.

Week 1 kicked off with a 38-6 against the Baltimore Ravens as Cleveland turned the ball over three times in an ass-kicking that had many of us in the mode of "Same Old Browns. Rinse. Repeat."

But then something happened.

The Browns started winning, four straight, including a dominant home win against an excellent Colts team, eventually paving the way to an 11-5 regular season and a 2020 NFL Coach of the Year award for Stefanski.

Cleveland earned their first playoff victory in 25 years, beating their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in the Wild Card game before eventually falling to the AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs.

The Browns, despite finishing 28th in passing attempts and 24th in pass yardage, were still a relatively balanced offense in 2020, finishing 13th in TDs. A heavy dose of the run game and play-action became their bread and butter on offense. Cleveland controlled the clock, long drives and most importantly, didn't turn the ball over, ranking fifth in the league in interceptions.

Now in 2021, there are actual legitimate expectations for the Browns as their offense returns almost fully intact, and their defense brings in nine new starters after being up and down throughout last year.

Cleveland Browns 2021 Team Outlook

Baker Mayfield started all 16 games a season ago, delivering by far and away his most successful season of his three-year career. Mayfield's 26 touchdowns, while not a career high, was paired with only eight interceptions, a remarkable turnaround from a 21-pick season in 2019. His passing yards per game continue to fall each year, but Stefanski's system doesn't relay on constant deep attempts downfield. Quite frankly, even as the NFL evolves as a passing league, when you have the top rated offensive line and fourth best running back according to Pro Football Focus, you might as well stick to what works best.

Speaking of the Browns offensive line and running game, the two of them combined might up with the Colts for the best in the NFL. All five starters return up front with solid depth behind players like tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr, as well as Joel Bitonio, J.C. Tretter and Wyatt Teller. Mayfield took 26 sacks last season, but a far better number than the 40 he had in the previous year.

Nick Chubb remains an absolute powerhouse for the Browns, and has paired up nicely with Kareem Hunt the previous two seasons. Chubb rushed for 12 touchdowns on 1,067 rushing yards, averaging a terrific 5.6 yards per carry while missing four games due to injury. Hunt, while still effective, actually had eight more rushing attempts than Hunt, but only scored twice, ran for 226 less yards and half as many touchdowns. He did see many more targets in the passing game and adding five more scores through the air.

The Browns' receivers are intriguing, with a high ceiling if everyone is healthy, but a very low floor as well. Odell Beckham Jr. only played in seven games last season, catching just 23 passes. While going over 1,000 receiving yards back in 2019, Cleveland hasn't sniffed the Beckham Jr. production the league became accustomed to during those first three years in New York; averaging just under 1,375 yards, double digit touchdowns and nearly 100 receptions.

Jarvis Landry continues to be a safe reliable slot option for Mayfield, but the wild card is second-year receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones who's been opening up a lot of eyes in Training Camp.

At tight end, Austin Hooper was a major free agent signing from the Falcons a season ago. He finished second to Landry in both targets and receptions, but that was nowhere near the numbers he put up in his free agency season in Atlanta. Him and Harrison Bryant have a chance to be real red zone and mismatch weapons for Mayfield, but they'll need to make a larger emphasis on getting them the ball.

On defense, Myles Garrett remains one of the most dominant pass rushers in all of football, racking up 12 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and 18 QB hits last season. Olivier Vernon remains a free agent after a nine sack season last year, but the team brought in Jadeveon Clowney to take his place.

At linebacker, Sione Takitaki (arguably the most fun name in sports) lines up with Mack Wilson on the outside, and Anthony Walker is projected to start at inside linebacker up the middle.

Pro Bowler Denzel Ward should receive some more help as the Browns secondary got picked apart throughout much of 2020. The Browns drafted Greg Newsome in the first round and still have Greedy Williams on the roster. John Johnson III comes over from the Rams at safety, and the Browns will likely start him and Ronnie Harrison, as well as rotating in Grant Delpit.

Cleveland Browns 2021 NFL Draft

It's not often to see the Browns drafting in the late portion of the first round, but fans will happily take it after their breakout season a year ago.

They shored up their secondary with Northwestern corner Greg Newsome II, a first-team all Big Ten player who should play a meaningful role in his first season on the other side of former Big Ten star Denzel Ward.

In the second round, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was considered to be a huge steal for Cleveland where he got drafted. He won the Dick Butkus Award as the most outstanding linebacker in the country while at Notre Dame.

Round 3 led way to wide receiver Anthony Schwartz out of Auburn, who provides a key deep threat on the outside for the Browns to help create more space for OBJ, Landry, and their two top tight ends. They then added more depth in the 4th at offensive tackle with the selection of James Hudson out of Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns Team Odds: Division (+155), Conference (+825), Super Bowl (+1500)

The Browns head into the 2021 season as slight underdogs behind the Baltimore Ravens (+105) to win the division at +155 odds at WynnBET Sportsbook.The Pittsburgh Steelers are third at +400 despite winning the AFC North a season ago, and the Cincinnati Bengals hold up the pack at +1800.

Both the Browns and Ravens hold +1500 odds to win Super Bowl 56, but the Ravens hold slightly lower odds to win the AFC (+700) compared to Cleveland at +825.

Cleveland Browns Regular Season Win Total: 10.5 WINS | OVER (-110), UNDER (-105)

Ben Heisler: 

Before I'm labeled a Browns "hater" within the first few sentences, I want to make it clear that I think they're very much on the right track in becoming one of the better teams in the AFC. Mayfield's development in his third season was terrific, and Stefanski's system, led by a terrific offensive line and run game have made Mayfield into a unique hybrid at quarterback. He can be an effective game manager with their offense, while still showcasing his passing abilities and accuracy downfield when necessary.

My concern is two-fold. One, teams know what Cleveland wants to do on offense. Kevin Stefanski's biggest challenge in Year 2 is similar to what Matt Nagy had to deal with in his second year coaching the Bears; proving that your offense can adapt as the leagues adjusts and scheme for you. Nagy and Mitch Trubisky struggled despite a terrific defense as the Bears finished 8-8.

Now, I think Cleveland, especially with their commitment to the run behind an excellent offensive line will work to their advantage, but opposing defenses are going to dare Baker to throw the ball, and I can't help but wonder if that's what gets them into trouble this year. Even the best offensive lines can't always handle a stacked box again and again, and while play-action is to keep them honest, until Mayfield and his receiving group start burning teams through the air, I worry that they could regress.

Defensively, they're improved in the secondary, and up front they'll continue to generate pressure, but there's still a lot of new names on defense, the bulk of their starters from last year. Many might argue that the players they brought in are an improvement, but it still takes meaningful games and repetitions to all get on the same page, and I could see that being an issue for Cleveland early on. If they can weather the storm, and rack up some wins in the middle of the season with a very week schedule, they'll be a playoff team. But their final quarter five games are tough: back-to-back matchups against the Ravens in Weeks 12 and 14, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, and at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh before closing it out against the Bengals at home.

I still like Cleveland to finish above .500, but right at 9-8 as the season shifts to 17 games.

PREDICTION: UNDER (-105)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9

Donnavan Smoot:

Cleveland is going to be a good team this season, but it may have been a bit of an overachieving season. The Browns had the 14th-best scoring offense in the league and the 21st-scoring defense in 2020. Even with Nick Chubb, a healthy Odell Beckham and Baker Mayfield continuing to grow as a passer, they might be a middle of the pack football team.

The Browns had seven wins last year decided by 7 points or fewer. They played in a lot of close games and have a lot of room to regress. Cleveland will also have to fight for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC. 

One plus for the Browns is going to be the fact that Chubb is going to be healthy again this year. While Mayfield may be the emotional leader of the offense, Chubb powers it. They are 13-4 when Chubb runs for 100 yards and Cleveland should expect plenty of yardage from Chubb behind its elite offensive line. 

The Browns are going to be in a year-long battle against the Baltimore Ravens in what will be a fun AFC North race. 

PREDICTION: OVER 10.5 WINS (-110)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 11 WINS (+500)

Peter Dewey: 

The Browns surprised a lot of people last year under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, and I expect them to continue their upward trajectory in 2021. 

Cleveland, by all accounts, has improved its roster heading into this season. John Johnson III, Troy Hill and Jadeveon Clowney are massive upgrades on defense, and with Nick Chubb and Odell Bekcham Jr. both healthy, the Browns are looking like a serious contender in the AFC.

Cleveland’s ceiling will come down to Baker Mayfield’s play, but in a run-heavy offense that has two top-tier running backs (Chubb and Kareem Hunt) the Browns can hide any of Mayfield’s deficiencies. 

If Clowney can revive his career alongside Myles Garrett, I think Cleveland has one of the few teams that could compete with the Chiefs in the AFC. Not saying that they will beat them, but the Browns are a team to watch in 2021. 

PREDICTION: OVER 10.5 WINS (-110)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 11 WINS (+500)

Iain MacMillan:

Everyone (outside of fans of other AFC North teams) were happy for Cleveland Browns fans last year when they finally got to see their team in the postseason for the first time since 2002. Not only did they get to see the Browns back in the playoffs, but they got to watch them defeat their division rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, in the Wild Card Round.

So what should we expect from the Browns this season?

I’m a firm believer of the age-old adage that football games are won in the trenches, and many people think that the Browns will have the best offensive line in the NFL this season. Not only that, but they’ve added Jadeveon Clowney to line up alongside Myles Garrett, which should also give them one of the best defensive lines in football.

Those two factors, paired with Baker Mayfield taking another step forward, a healthy OBJ, and one of the best running backs in the NFL in Nick Chubb, and I think the Browns a primed for a massive season.

The Browns also addressed their biggest weakness this offseason, the defensive secondary, but adding former Rams cornerback Troy Hill, who had ten pass deflections and three interceptions with Los Angeles last season. Finally, they added lineback Anthony Walker to their lineup, who recorded 92 tackles with the Colts in 2020.

I’m all in on the Browns this season.

PREDICTION: OVER 10.5 WINS (-110)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 12 WINS (+600)

Will the Cleveland Browns Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (+170), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-230)

Ben Heisler: 

Going through our full list of predictions, I currently have three teams at 9-8 in the AFC: New England, Miami and Cleveland. While I find myself flip-flopping over which of those two teams likely grab the sixth and seventh spots, I'm leaning more towards the two AFC East teams for now.

The Browns are still a very solid football team, but I think the AFC North is collectively better than it's been in years. Pittsburgh is on the downside, but their defense remains very strong, Baltimore remains a clear threat, and the Bengals' offense should scare plenty of opposing teams. The Browns will have to claw and fight for every inch in the black and blue division, and I think they come up a tad bit short.

PREDICTION: NO (+170)

Donnavan Smoot:

While I’m not as high on the Browns as maybe the rest of the public, they are clearly talented, and I fully expect them to be in the playoffs. The AFC is going to be packed in the wild card race, but the Browns should be the leader of the pack. The AFC North should belong to Baltimore, leaving the first wild card spot to Cleveland.

Cleveland fans have been deprived of good football for so long and it’s good to see them finally have something to cheer for. If the Browns don’t make the playoffs, I would be shocked and disappointed. 

Although they won’t host a game, put the Browns in your bracket.

PREDICTION: YES (-230)

Peter Dewey: 

The Browns and Ravens are going to fight for the AFC North crown in 2021, and there’s a real argument that the Browns could win the division. 

I expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to take a step back in the 2021 season, which should guarantee the Browns at least the second spot in the division and most likely another wild card berth. 

Mayfield showed flashes in his first season under Stefanski, and I think that he will only get better in the offense with OBJ back and Chubb healthy for a whole season (hopefully). Give me the Browns to make the playoffs for back-to-back seasons for the first time since the 1988 and 1989 seasons. 

PREDICTION: YES (-230)

Iain MacMillan:

The AFC North is going to be a competitive division, but I think they’re going to beat each other up so much that only one team will make the postseason, and that team will be the Cleveland Browns.

Led by Nick Chubb, who averaged an astounding 5.6 yards per carry last season, the Browns will find success with an explosive, well-rounded offense and a much improved defense from last season.

Another advantage in Cleveland’s favor, is that it has a third-place schedule, which should give the Browns a leg up on their divisional opponents.

PREDICTION: YES (-225)

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Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Check back Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT when we preview the betting outlook for the Pittsburgh Steelers and check out our earlier team-by-team betting previews.

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