High Winds in Cleveland Impacting Browns-Cardinals Over/Under

One of the most anticipated matchups for this week's NFL slate is the 5-0 Arizona Cardinals traveling to Cleveland to take on the Browns. As of Sunday morning, Cleveland is a 3.5-point favorite against the Cardinals at WynnBET, despite heavy public support taking Arizona as a moneyline underdog of +145 odds (bet $100 to win $145). This is despite Arizona racking up wins while the Browns found a way to give up 47 points to the Chargers last week.

Sportsbooks were anticipating a high-scoring back-and-forth matchup at the beginning of the week with two of the most potent offenses in the league. Those plans have since changed.

After WynnBET opened the projected game total at 54, the line has since moved all the way down to 48, with the weather in Cleveland being a large factor in collective sportsbooks' decision.

Weather, High Winds in Cleveland impacting the over-under for Cardinals vs. Browns

According to fantasy sports and sports betting meteorologist Kevin Roth, the wind, which is expected to be around 20 MPH with 30 MPH gusts, has played a substantial impact on the major drop in total points.

Many public bettors almost immediately gravitate to the under when either wind or rain become involved in the forecast, but the wind is the far more significant factor. According to Bet Labs, as of November 29, 2020, unders in games that have winds of 10 mph or higher have hit at a 56% clip.

I agree with Roth's determination that there's no longer value on the under in this spot. If anything, I'll be tempted to jump on the over if we see this number continue to move. Both Arizona and Cleveland plan on being a high-rushing team anyways, so these winds aren't likely to impact their game plans. If this creeps below 48, I'll absolutely jump on the over.

For more betting plays and a pick on this afternoon's matchup, check out Thomas Snodgrass' top 3 props for today!