Coastal Carolina vs. Troy Prediction and Odds for Sun Belt Championship Game (Can Chanticleers Keep Up?)

Nov 12, 2022; Conway, South Carolina, USA; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers quarterback Jarrett Guest
Nov 12, 2022; Conway, South Carolina, USA; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers quarterback Jarrett Guest / David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports

Coastal Carolina has been a dominant force in the Sun Belt over the last three seasons under head coach Jamey Chadwell, but a banged up Chanticleers team may run into their toughest matchup yet in the Sun Belt Championship game.

Troy has had an outstanding season in 2022, losing one game in Sun Belt play on a Hail Mary, and will look to reclaim the conference title for the first time since 2017. The Trojans own the Sun Belt's best defense and may take on a Coastal Carolina team still without star quarterback Grayson McCall.

Will McCall be able to return from his ankle injury this week? We have the latest and our best bet on this one. Let's first check out the odds:

Coastal Carolina vs. Troy Odds, Spread and Total

Coastal Carolina vs. Troy Betting Trends

  • Coastal Carolina hasn't covered their last two games without Grayson McCall in the lineup
  • Troy is 9-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Troy is 5-7 to the OVER this season
  • Coastal went OVER in both games without McCall

Coastal Carolina vs. Troy Prediction and Pick

McCall's status is of course impactful to this game. He has completed nearly 69% of his passes with 25 total touchdowns and just one interception. He led a Coastal Carolina offense that was top 25 in EPA/Play before his injury and offset what is a struggling defense (outside the top 100 in EPA/Play).

The Chanticleers have turned to Junior Jarrett Guest, who has thrown four interceptions in two starts against two formidable Sun Belt defenses in Southern Mississippi and James Madison. However, Troy bolsters the best in the conference, 22nd in EPA/Play and top 10 in yards per play allowed.

While Coastal won at home against Southern Mississippi, they were boat raced by James Madison 47-7.

The drop off is significant, but can Troy's offense do enough to cover this double digit spread? The offense leaves a ton to be desired, scoring less than two points per drive and come in outside the top 100 in red zone touchdown percentage.

Chadwell's defense struggles to get off the field, but they are efficient when it counts, allowing a touchdown on 50% of red zone drives, the 20th best mark in the country. As well, the team has 30 sacks on the season, a weak point of the Troy offense that has allowed 36 on the season, outside the top 100 nationally.

I'm not touching the spread even though I question if Troy is being overrated in the market given their recent winning streak and McCall's injury. If he is out and this number continued to climb, I'd back the Chanticleers at 13 or better, but for now I'll look to the under as I question if Troy will light up the scoreboard with their poor offensive line.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.