The biggest match of the young tennis season featuring one of the best rivalries in the sport is set at the Australian Open women's semifinals when Coco Gauff faces Aryna Sabalenka in a rematch of last year's U.S. Open Final.
There is plenty of intrigue and plenty of ways to bet this match with the winner expected to be a sizable favorite to hoist the trophy on Saturday.
While it may be tempting to blindly bet the American following her win over Sabalenka in New York, that would be foolish. Instead, let's break down this match and see where the best opportunity is to cash in is as these two stars square off again.
Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds via DraftKings.
Coco Gauff: +180
Aryna Sabalenka: -225
Over 21.5 (-115)
Under 21.5 (-105)
Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction and Pick
Sabalenka is a big favorite in this match for several reasons. Beyond winning this event last year, she's been dominant on her way to the semifinals this event, dropping only 16 total games in five matches thus far. Her serve has only been broken three times in those matches while she's broken her opponent's serve 24 times.
That serve is one of her greatest strengths. Coupled with her big groundstrokes, she's typically able to overpower the opposition. But Gauff counters with one of the strongest defensive games in women's tennis, neutralizing Sabalenka's power and frustrating her into mistakes.
Gauff leads this head-to-head series 4-2, including her comeback three-set win in the finals at the U.S. Open. She's fast, consistent on the forehand and backhand and has a powerful serve of her own.
She used that defense to frustrate Sabalenka at the U.S. Open, which led to Sabalenka hitting 46 unforced errors. Nearly impossible to win a match playing that way and I'm sure Sabalenka will be focused on avoiding that pitfall this time around.
While Gauff has gotten the better of Sabalenka overall, I think Sabalenka pulls this match out. Gauff eked out a win over Marta Kostyuk in the quarterfinals, getting broken seven times, and hasn't faced a ranked opponent in the lead up to this match. Sabalenka, meanwhile, has dispatched two ranked opponents. She also has a better track record in Melbourne, with this being Goff's first semifinal appearance here.
That said, I wouldn't bet on Sabalenka's moneyline. There's no value there. Instead, I'll bet Sabalenka to win in two sets, which has +130 odds at DraftKings
Sabalenka plays her best in Australia and is in top form right now. Gauff has the game to counteract a lot of what makes Sabalenka great, but I don't believe Sabalenka will fall into that trap again. Right now, Sabalenka is just in better form than Gauff, and after blowing a one-set lead in the U.S. Open final, I'm sure she'll be hyper focused on avoiding that pitfall again.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.