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Colgate vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Round

Breaking down the odds, trends, key players, and best bet prediction for the Round of 64 March Madness game in the NCAA Tournament between Baylor and Colgate.

By Iain MacMillan

Mar 14, 2024; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baylor Bears guard RayJ Dennis (10) and Baylor Bears guard
Mar 14, 2024; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baylor Bears guard RayJ Dennis (10) and Baylor Bears guard / William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
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The 2021 NCAA Tournament champion, Baylor, is back and looking to go on another run in 2023. The Bears are set as the No. 3 seed in this year's edition of the event after finishing third in the Big 12 with a 23-10 overall record.

They're set to face No. 14 Colgate in the opening round. The Raiders have made the tournament in four of the past six years, but have failed to advance past the first round. Can they finally pull off an upset and advance to the Round of 32? Let's find out what the oddsmakers make.

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Colgate vs. Baylor odds, spread, and total

Colgate vs. Baylor betting trends

  • Colgate is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in Colgate's last eight games
  • Colgate is 1-10 straight up in its last 11 games played on a Friday
  • Colgate is 1-5 ATS in its last six games when set as the underdog.
  • Baylor is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
  • Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when set as the favorite

Colgate vs. Baylor how to watch

  • Date: Friday, March 22
  • Game Time: 12:40 PM EST
  • Venue: FedEx Forum
  • How to Watch (TV): truTV
  • Colgate Record: 25-9
  • Baylor Record: 23-10

Colgate vs. Baylor key players to watch

Colgate

Braeden Smith: Colgate's guard, Braeden Smith, is the clear best player for Colgate. He's averaging 12.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. The Raiders' have a chance to pull off the upset if he brings his "A" game. If he doesn't, they'll be in trouble.

Baylor

RayJ Dennis: Baylor's guard, RayJ Dennis, is the commander of this offense. Averaging a blistering 6.8 assists per game, which is the seventh most per game in the country. The Bears' offense is firing on all cylinders when Dennis brings his best stuff.

Colgate vs. Baylor prediction and pick

I have Baylor advancing in my bracket, but covering the spread is a completely different question. The Bears have a few issues that are going to make me take the points with the Raiders. The first of which is their defense, which ranks 227th in opponent effective field goal percentage and 157th in defensive efficiency.

That could cost Baylor now that its facing a Colgate team that's 54th in effective field goal percentage. If the Raiders can get hot from the field, they can keep this game close.

Another reason I'm cautious about laying the points in this one is Baylor ranking 218th in turnovers per possession, coughing it up 17.3% of the time it has the ball. Not wasting possessions plays a big role in covering big spreads in the tournament and if Baylor starts turning the ball over, it's only going to give Colgate more opportunities to stay in this game.

Give me the points with the Raiders on Friday.

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