College Basketball Best Bets for Today, February 12th

We have arrived at another 100+ game Saturday slate. It's tough sometimes to pick a side and find an edge on the large serving of games, but I've conjured up a handful that I'm playing on this mid-February card.

I played several games when the lines opened Saturday, and I advise you to check out my betstamp for all of those, but I've added more on Saturday morning as well to get ready for the wall-to-wall hoops coverage.

With that, let's get to the bets.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Column Record: 57-46-3 (+8.7 Units)

Arkansas (+5) vs. Alabama

I know the spot screams Alabama, but I think that the Crimson Tide are still overvalued in the market and I'll play against it. Arkansas is coming off a massive win against No. 1 Auburn earlier in the week and can be a bit sleepy, but I'm buying Eric Musselman's squad again.

I make this game closer to -3.5. The Crimson Tide are eventually due for positive shooting regression, but so is Arkansas. Each team is shooting below 32% in SEC play (Alabama worse at 29%), but I trust the Razorbacks defense that has JD Notae on the perimeter and Jaylin Williams inside to shut down the Tide's offense.

Alabama jacks three's (second highest three-point rate in the SEC) and if they are cold again they will struggle against a stout Hogs interior that is holding opponents to the second lowest two point percentage in league play.

We saw the team fall apart in the second half against Kentucky, scoring just 28 points in the last 20 minutes. Arkansas is a strong defensive team as well, ranked 25th in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric and has the best mark in SEC play.

I know the situation screams Bama, but I like Arkansas to stay close and potentially win again.

PICK: Arkansas +5, play to +4.5

Florida State (+9) vs. North Carolina

It appears that the bottom has fallen out from the Noles, who have dropped five straight games and failed to cover in all of them too, but I'm going to take a stab at them here against North Carolina.

For starters, the team has actually done well in the role of an underdog, covering in four of seven games, but they also match up well against the Tar Heels, able to match their length on the perimeter and the size down low to stick with Tar Heels big man Armando Bacot.

The Noles are still inside the top 50 in ShotQuality's overall ranking with a balanced offensive and defensive profile. The team can't generate much on offense in conference play, 14th in effective field goal percentage but I like the spot for them to get some positive shooting regression and match the Heels on offense considering UNC doesn't force any turnovers (14th in turnover rate).

I show a slight number edge and like the spot for Leonard Hamilton's crew to hang around and cover a giant number.

PICK: Florida State +9, play to +8

Kansas State (+5) vs. Iowa State

The Iowa State fade train continues, this time against Bruce Weber's veteran laden Wildcats.

Iowa State's half court offense is non existent at this point, ranking last in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric in Big 12 play, and the team will have trouble pulling away from a Kansas State team that is best in league play in turnover rate and fourth in the country in limiting potential points off of a breakaway steals, per Halsemetrics.

Kansas State plays slow, bottom third in the nation in adjusted tempo, and have been competitive on the road, covering in six of eight true road games. While this game may be ugly, I can't trust the Cyclones to win by two possessions.

PICK: Kansas State +5

Michigan (-2) vs. Ohio State

Before the season I went on record and thought Michigan had National Championship potential. While it's been a windy road for the Wolverines, we are at the least starting to see flashes of a dark horse NCAA Tournament team. I may have jumped the gun, and this team may be far from a legitimate threat, but I believe that Michigan's 24 point romp of Purdue at home was a sign of good things to come.

Some may be concerned of a potential letdown against Ohio State on Saturday night, but I'm not a believer in the Buckeyes, who are 127th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric and have been getting by on the second highest mid-range shooting percentage in the country, per Haslemetrics.

EJ Liddel can pose some problems for the Michigan defense, but the Wolverines are dynamite at home, 91-63-2 ATS since 2005 in Big Ten play (h/t Stuckey from the Action Network). The Buckeyes have a middling defensive rebounding rate and I believe Dickinson can eat inside once again.

This line suggests that Ohio State is better on a neutral floor, which I'm not so sure of. If the Buckeyes are on from three, the team is second in Big Ten play in three point rate, all the power to them, but Michigan's defensive flaws come off the bounce not on catch-and-shoot three's.

Ohio State has won three road games all season against the bottom feeders of the Big Ten: Penn State, Nebraska (in overtime) and Minnesota, I don't see them getting one against an (at the very least) quality foe in rival Michigan.

PICK: Michigan -2, play to -3

USC (+2) vs. UCLA

My number is right on line here, but I like the situation for the Trojans on Saturday night against their inner-city rivals.

USC had to comeback late against a lowly Pacific team on Tuesday night in a rescheduled non conference matchup, but that's a bit misleading. The team didn't have star forward Isaiah Mobley due to a broken nose, but he's on track to play in this one (make sure to confirm before tip if you want).

I haven't been a believer in UCLA all season and the Trojans match up very well against them. USC has one of the best interior defenses in the country with their gigantic front court, fifth in field goal percentage allowed at the rim and fourth in overall two-point percentage.

The Bruins are bottom 60 in the country in three-point rate and like to use point guard Tyger Campbell to get inside and generate for the likes the Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard. However, the team's length will overwhelm the 5'11" Campbell and clean the glass against a UCLA team that is 10th in offensive rebounding percentage in PAC-12 play.

The Trojans are good, but haven't really proven themselves just yet, winning two games over KenPom top 50 teams this season. The team has a ton of talent and size and I expect we see a massive effort against a highly ranked foe on Saturday night, who they have also beaten five of the last six meetings.

PICK: USC +2, play to ML +110

Best Bets for Saturday College Basketball

• Texas +6
• Davidson -3
• West Virginia +3.5
• Georgia Tech +9.5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 57-46-3 for +8.7 units.