College Basketball Best Bets for Today, February 26th
By Reed Wallach
We are in the home stretch of the college basketball regular season as teams jockey for position ahead of Selection Sunday just a few weeks away.
Mid major conferences are wrapping up their regular seasons while power conferences continue to sort themselves out. I made a handful of plays on the card that I'll jot down below.
I bet a few opening numbers that have moved out of range, if you want to find those the night before check out my betstamp, but here are a mess of plays to get us through the Saturday viewing experience.
Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook
Column Record: 70-67-3 (-0.65 Units)
Iowa State vs. Kansas State Under 131.5
These two played on February 12th in an overtime thriller that saw the underdog Wildcats knock off the Cyclones 75-69 in overtime. That total closed 128. While both offenses have seen an uptick over the past few weeks, K-State has gone over in the following three games and ISU has done it in two of three, I can't get to this number.
Both teams play at a deliberate pace and struggle to score inside. If each team goes off from three so be it, but I trust Iowa State's defense to show up (11th in defensive efficiency per KenPom) in a big revenge spot while Kansas State point of attack is in a grind of a game anyway.
I think this game is played in the low 60's and think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction from the last game that needed an extra session to get over. I'll play against it.
PICK: UNDER 131.5, play to 130
Duke vs. Syracuse OVER 151
Syracuse is very good on one side of the ball (offense) and abysmal on the other (defense). That works out great in this matchup against Duke, who had little issue gashing the Cuse zone defense last month, scoring 1.18 points per possession and shooting 14-of-37 from beyond the arc.
I do believe we see a herculean effort from the Orange on Saturday in a last ditch effort to make an NCAA Tournament run, but it will likely be to no avail. Duke has too much size on the outside and has a zone breaking forward in Paolo Banchero to keep the offense humming.
I think Syracuse can score here, though leading me to the over. Duke's defense is still a bit suspect, and I bet we see some betting shooting from the Orange in the first matchup after they shot just 5-for-29 from three in the 20 point loss in January. The home team likes to play fast and the visitors are a willing dance partner, each in the top half of the country in adjusted tempo.
I think Duke names their number and the Orange get hot from three to make this a shootout.
PICK: OVER 151, play to 152.5
Kansas vs. Baylor UNDER 149.5
Similar handicap to the Iowa State vs. Kansas State one, but this one comes with some personal experience. I played the over in the first matchup between these two that saw the Jayhawks wipe the floor with Baylor, 83-59, keeping it under. That game closed 145, so now we are adjusting it five points?
I get that Kansas has defensive issues, but I have this game lined much lower in what should be more of a defensive minded matchup with Baylor still nursing some injuries but the more motivated side after one of the worst results of the Scott Drew era. The no-middle defense and home crowd should make this game more of a rock fight.
I admittedly bet 150.5 at open, but there's value in this down to 147. I also like getting an under on the Jayhawks after they hung 102 points last time out against Kansas State.
PICK: UNDER 149.5, play to 147
Creighton (+5) vs. Providence
This opened 6 but there's still room to go here. While the Bluejays lost star guard Ryan Nembhard for the rest of the season, I can't help but fade the Friars. Providence is off one of the craziest games of the season earlier this week, a triple overtime thriller over Xavier at home, and could be flat at home against a motivated Creighton side.
Creighton is firmly in the field of 68, but can probably use one more Quad 1 win against a 23-3 Providence club. Not to mention that Ed Cooley's club has Villanova on deck in a game that could have Big Eat title implications. Now, Providence just needs to win on Saturday to clinch the regualr season title, but can they do it by this margin? The team has been squeaking out games all season, so now we expect a considerable victory after such a draining game last time out?
Lead guard Al Durham has been battling a sports hernia and was in and out of the locker room on Wednesday night while Jared Bynum had an injury (possibly just cramps) at the end of the third extra period.
All in all, this is the ultimate flat spot for a Providence team that has done a great job winning tight games but struggling to win with margin. Creighton has the best defense in the Big East and will make a flat and possibly banged up Friars team work. I think the Jays are a live dog on Saturday night.
PICK: Creighton +5, play to +4
Boise State (-1) vs. UNLV
I haven't been the biggest believer in Boise State this season, but think this line is a good time to sell their opponent, UNLV, who profiles as a dangerous Mountain West Tournament club but may be getting too much credit here.
The two met in Boise on February 11th and the Broncos used a second half surge to win 69-63. Since then, the Runnin' Rebs have won three straight, two of which to formidable foes Fresno State and Colorado State, as they look to get some revenge.
UNLV has stud Bryce Hamilton, who is second in the country in field goal attempt rate (he's taking more than 40% of the team's shots this season, per KenPom) and scored 32 in the loss last meeting. However, I trust Boise State's wings like Abu Kigab to hang with him and make him work.
Meanwhile, the biggest edge in this game comes on the glass. Boise State is the third best defensive rebounding team in the country and not too shabby on the offensive end either, generating the third best OREB% in conference play. UNLV for that manner is middle of the pack in defensive rebounding rate while not forcing turnovers often. Boise's offense has question marks but I trust them to get generate second chances and get to the free throw line.
Hamilton can go nuclear, but I'm going to side with the better team to win and keep pace atop the MWC standings.
PICK: Boise State -1
College Basketball Best Bets for Saturday, February 26th
- Seton Hall +4
- ML Parlay: North Texas/Utah State (+155)
- TCU +4.5
- Portland +10.5
- Western Kentucky +2.5
- South Carolina +11
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!