Betsided

College Basketball Best Bets for Today, January 29th

By Reed Wallach

Florida State Seminoles forward Malik Osborne (10) celebrates his teammate's basket.
Florida State Seminoles forward Malik Osborne (10) celebrates his teammate's basket. / Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA
facebooktwitterreddit

Loaded slate, 138 games, plenty of games. We know the drill.

I'll hit a quick rundown of the bets I've already placed below as I try to get this best bets record back closer to .500. In the meantime, all my bets are tracked in real time on my betstamp, which you can find here. I have a few more I'm likely to play that you can find there.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Column Record: 27-36-3 (-11.5 Units)

TCU (+3) vs. LSU

I bet this at open last night, but there are reports that LSU may have guard Xavier Pinson back in the lineup and definitely have Darius Days back. While that's not great for my bet on Jamie Dixon's squad, I still like the spot for TCU who can slow this game into a rock fight and stay within a possession.

I make this game closer to LSU -2 with Pinson in the lineup, so not as much of an edge considering he can help limit LSU's ghastly turnover numbers, but I believe that TCU's work on the glass and interior defense make this game go down to the wire.

PICK: TCU +3

Oklahoma-Auburn OVER 136

I think we see a bit of a track meet after Auburn played a grind of a game against Missouri in the 50's.

Both teams are top 50 in potential points off breakaway steals, per Haslemetrics, so there are active hands on each side that like to force turnovers and and run. The Sooners are particularly bad at protecting the rock, bottom 20 in turnover rate, per KenPom, but I believe they are due for some positive regression.

ShotQuality loves OU, ranking them 25th in their adjusted rating with the 21st best Rim & 3 Rate, which means they are taking great shots but not getting them to fall. OU can hang around in this one potentially and we see points on the board.

PICK: OVER 136

Florida State (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech continues to be priced in the market like an NCAA Tournament team, but this team is far from it, and we will continue to fade them.

The Hokies backcourt struggles with athleticism and Florida State has that in the backcourt with the likes of Caleb Mills covering Storm Murphy. Va. Tech struggles to clean the defensive glass against a physical Florida State bunch that is top 50 in offensive rebounding this season.

I bet this at open at -1.5 last night, but see value on this one up through -4. The Hokies are 2-8 against the spread (ATS) the last 10 games, the market isn't adjusting.

PICK: Florida State -2.5

Kansas vs. Kentucky UNDER 153

This is a high total for a battle of two blue bloods, especially with Kentucky possibly down guard Tyty Washington. Even if he goes, I see him helping more on the defensive side of the ball to slow down the Kansas high octane offense around Ocahi Agbaji.

However, with Oscar Tshiebwe manning the paint, I see limited trips for the KU offense. The Wildcats are just outside the top 10 nationally in defensive rebounding rate and I envision they are looking to avoid getting into a track meet with Kansas given that they are top 50 in three-point rate.

I think we see this game tight throughout and a much more methodical pace with it being such a high profiled game. Plug your nose and take the under, which I have pegged at 148, to 151.

PICK: UNDER 153

Saturday Best Bets

  • Tulane +2.5
  • Texas/Arkansas ML Parlay (+102)
  • Nebraska +3
  • Santa Clara +8
  • Texas A&M-South Carolina OVER 135.5
Home/College Basketball Predictions and Picks