College Basketball Best Bets for Today, January 7th

Thursday night I got hit with the reverse sweep, 0-4. Not pretty.

However, college basketball is a long season with a ton of variance. Those days happen over the course of the winter and I'll keep sticking to my process. No need to change it up.

All odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

For more plays posted before and after publish, you can check out all of them in real time here.

Column Record: 10-13-2 (-4.3 Units)

Kent State (+8) vs. Ohio

The game preview is attached above, but I mentioned that Kent State is due for some positive regression in the shooting department.

ShotQuality believes that the Golden Flashes shot profile makes them closer to a 9-4 team than a 7-6 club. Meanwhile, Ohio is actually two wins above expectation from their shot profile. So there could be some pullback from them.

Both teams play slow, but Kent State must protect the rock, Ohio is 31st in the country in turning their opponent over while the visitors are bottom half of the country on offense.

However, I believe these teams are closer to equal than this line indicates, so I'm going to take the big spread and believe that the underdog can hang around behind their 80% free throw shooting.

Pick: Kent State +8, play to +7

Cleveland State (-8.5) vs. Robert Morris

While this seems like a lot to lay with a road favorite, the Vikings may be in line for a blowout performance against Robert Morris.

For starters, RMU will be without their star player Rasheem Dunn who left the program on Thursday.

Dunn had a usage rate of 26%, most on the team and played more than three quarters of the team's minutes. Maybe there is a dead cat bounce for the 2-11 Colonials, but I'm going to side with the visitors to win big.

Cleveland State is top 40 in turnover rate and Robert Morris will struggle without their lead ball handler. Even with Dunn, Robert Morris was 241st in limiting their turnovers this season and struggle to defend the interior against a physical Cleveland State offense that plays inside, scoring 57% on two point tries. RMU is 250th in defending two-point shots this season.

Free throws are a concern for the visitors, shooting 66% as a team this season, but this team has beat up on lowly competition all season, I see a similar result here.

PICK: Cleveland State -8.5 (-105), play to -9

Xavier vs. Butler UNDER 130.5

This market steamed up to 132, which I played, before there was buyback to the opener of 130.5, but this is still in range in a game I have pegged for 129.

Xavier is coming off a COVID-19 pause that have left them out of action since December 21st, but all reports indicate they will have all of their players available.

However, I still lean towards the under against a Butler team that plays incredibly slow (346th in average possession length per KenPom) and are bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency.

The Bulldogs game plan is going to be to slow this game into a crawl and limit live ball turnovers against a Xavier team that plays at a top 50 pace.

Xavier is going to limit Butler to one trip often, top 25 in defensive rebounding rate and neither team is stellar from the line. I see the Musketeers easing into this game on the road at the always tricky Hinkle Fieldhouse with a methodical pace off the COVID-19 pause and try to get out with a grinding victory.

These are different teams, but both coaches are the same from last season. In that case the two teams combined for 123 and 114 points.

I'm going to side with the under to 130 in a game that I believe the winning team is in the 60's.

PICK: UNDER 130.5, play to 130