College Basketball Best Bets for Today, March 11th

After two days off the best bets column is back. We cashed our video play of UTEP -1.5 that closed at -2.5 and was never in doubt, but the Tuesday column struggled, going 1-3.

We are in the midst of a loaded conference tournament slate with elite matchups littered across the board over a 14-hour hoops day. Woof. If this week has shown us anything is that bets are never won and loss until the final buzzer, so let's keep it going and avoid the meltdowns and avoid some bait.

Some of these line moves have shifted quickly from the opener. Books are going to hang soft numbers and they are prone to swift moves from respected bettors. I'm not moving the lines by any means, but I'm betting overnight on a most of my bets and recommend checking out my betstamp for those plays in real time. Some bets I placed last night are no longer available.

With that in mind, here are the bets still widely available at time of publishing. Odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Column Record: 93-85-3 (+4.58 Units)

College Basketball Best Bets

• ADD: Texas A&M vs. Auburn UNDER 141
• Cincinnati +12
• Davidson/Fordham UNDER 130
• VCU -3
• Texas Tech/UNC ML Parlay +132

Parlay: Illinois/Providence ML Parlay +130

Tough spot for Indiana after a 17-point comeback against Michigan, but this line has moved from the opener of Illinois -3.5 quite a bit so I'll look at the moneyline.

The Illini have the three-point shooting with Trent Frazier and Alfonso Plummer (highest 3-point rate in the Big Ten) to outpace the Hoosiers offense that is trending towards falling outside of KenPom's top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season.

The Illini have answers on the perimeter and brute Kofi Cockburn down low, I think they win this one going away.

I'll pair them with Providence. The Friars won stuck to form in the Big Eat quarterfinals against Butler, winning in the final minute, but I believe they should be able to get by Creighton that is still without lead guard Ryan Nembhardt.

While the Bluejays turned Marquette over 15 times in the quarters, I don't see them doing as well against Providence's veteran ball handlers. I'd never lay more than a bucket with the Friars, but I believe they get it done against a shorthanded Creighton squad who they beat by 21 two Saturday's ago.

PICK: Illinois/Providence ML Parlay (+130)

Wisconsin (-2.5) vs. Michigan State

I grabbed this at -2 last night, but still see value in this up to -3. If it crossed 3, look for the Badgers as a ML parlay piece.

Many will have their gripes about the Badgers, but Michigan State has continued to show their true colors over the past month, getting blitzed by any real Big Ten competition outside of a home win at Purdue over the past month or so.

The Badgers dropped the first game in East Lansing this season without starting forward Tyler Wahl, but had Wahl in the second meeting when they won by 8. Now they get Sparty, who nearly blew a 9 point lead in the final two minutes to Maryland on Thursday night, with extra prep time and a rested Johnny Davis.

I don't think very highly of the Spartans, who are last in the Big Ten in turnover rate and have the third worst 2-point offense. The team is heavily reliant on making 3's, but the Badgers have done a great job of limiting them and defending them (second lowest 3-point percentage and third lowest rate). I think Wisconsin gets it done against a mediocre Michigan State team.

PICK: Wisconsin -2.5

TCU (+8) vs. Kansas

Maybe a team matches up well with another? That's TCU, who beat Kansas last week and then took them down to the wire at Allen Fieldhouse, covering a double digit spread, in a rescheduled two games in a week spot.

The Horned Frogs are playing inspired basketball under Jamie Dixon right now, firmly in the Tournament field but also on the heels of a double digit comeback against Texas in the second half on Thursday afternoon.

Kansas looked the part of a Final Four contender against West Virginia, but TCU is a far more imposing defense and can hang down low against the Jayhawks. The Horned Frogs sport the best offensive and defensive rebounding rate in Big 12 play, which should help against a Kansas rotation that typically trots one big out there.

Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have turnover issues, worst in league play in that metric, but Kansas turns opponents over at the lowest rate in the conference, mitigated that issue. I'm curious how Bill Self manages this game considering he has a short rotation and TCU is always going to bring the physicality aspect.

KU big man David McCormack has been battling nagging injuries (he played 10 minutes in Thursday's win over WVU) so we'll see how he handles the likes of Eddie Lampkin (top 10 in the country in OREB%) on the glass, but I think the Horned Frogs can cover this big number.

PICK: TCU +8

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!