Betsided

College Basketball Best Bets for Today, March 5th

By Reed Wallach

Kansas senior guard Ochai Agbaji (30) lays in for two against TCU during the first half of
Kansas senior guard Ochai Agbaji (30) lays in for two against TCU during the first half of / Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA
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The final Saturday of the regular season is here. Thank you to all for following along with the best bets column whether you are here for the first time or you've been reading since January. Let's go out with a winner.

3-1 Friday focused on conference tournaments helped get us back in the positive after a recent skid, bringing us to Saturday with plenty of bets on the board. Onto it.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Column Record: 85-79-3 (+1.35 Units)

LSU/Kansas Parlay

I like LSU quite a bit on Saturday after a loss to Arkansas. This Tigers team has been better than their 4-3 record suggests since Xavier Pinson has returned to the lineup, posting the 15th highest adjusted efficiency since the starting point guard came back from injury, per barttorvik.com.

Meanwhile, Alabama's defense remains a concern, outside the top 100 in that span and trending towards falling out of the top 100 for the season, per KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Meanwhile, the team is also sloppy on the offensive end, ranking in the bottom third in turnover rate. LSU boasts a top five defense and should have no issue turning their opponent over.

The spread feels right so I'm going to look to pair them with Kansas, who is off back-to-back weak showings against TCU. But, I can't lay off the Jayhawks on senior night. The team has won 38 straight at Allen Fieldhouse on senior day and I like them to get some revenge against a Texas team that beat them last month.

PICK: LSU/Kansas ML Parlay +120

Syracuse vs. Miami OVER 151.5

I completely whiffed on this market, but I'm not sure why? I have over 153.5 full disclosure so I'll be counting that, but here's my rationale for a play on the total.

These two played back in January in a shootout, 88-87 Hurricanes, and I don't see much that has changed in that one in a game that closed at 152.5. The U has the second best offense in the ACC and should have no issue gashing the Syracuse defense that gives up the most 3-point shots in the country and is bottom 30 in defensive rebounding rate.

Meanwhile, the Orange should get their fair share of points on the offensive side. Frankly, the team is full of bucket getters to offset their porous defense and Miami isn't the most adept on that side of the floor either. The Hurricanes are 328th in effective field goal percentage defense and Cuse loves to push the pace (76th in average offensive possession length).

I think we see a track meet on Saturday afternoon and I'll play it.

PICK: OVER 151.5, play to 155

Seton Hall (-105) vs. Creighton

I like getting Seton Hall in a near coin flip game against Creighton after the Bluejays scored a massive win over UConn earlier this week. Both teams are firmly in the NCAA Tournament, but Creighton secured a bye in the Big East Tournament next week.

However, Seton Hall is still playing for the final one, needing a win and a Marquette loss later on Saturday. While I don't think that's the end all be all for this one, I like the spot for SHU, who has done well on the road this season, covering in 6 of 10.

The Pirates have quietly strung together four straight wins and do an excellent job on the defensive glass while also shutting down the perimeter. I think it will be tough sledding for the Jays on the offensive side and Seton Hall can win a grind.

PICK: Seton Hall -105, play to -1 (-110)

Missouri State (-1) vs. Drake

We have a Missouri Valley Conference Semifinals matchup between two teams that I don't see as near equals on a neutral floor.

Missouri State won both games between the two this season and looked the part of an 'Arch Madness' contender on Friday night, taking care of Valparaiso, 67-58, behind a three headed attack of Isaiah Mosley, Gaige Prim and Donovan Clay.

Meanwhile, Drake beat Southern Illinois but I wasn't as impressed as the Bulldogs limited the Salukis to 4-of-26 from beyond the arc. That won't keep up against the MVC's best offensive team on Saturday. I'm concerned how the Bulldogs defense will hold up without their ace defender DJ Wilkins and think Mo. State takes care of business en route to the Finals on Sunday.

PICK: Missouri State -1, play to -2

College Basketball Best Bets

  • Virginia/Wyoming Parlay +133
  • Loyola Chicago -4
  • Kansas State -2
  • Morehead State +7
  • San Francisco -3

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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