College Basketball Best Bets for Today, NIT and Basketball Classic Finals
By Reed Wallach
We are almost at the NCAA Tournament Final Four, but first, we must wrap up a few other postseason tournaments before we get to the national semifinals.
The NIT Finals will go down on Thursday while The Basketball Classic will conclude on Friday after some travel issues for Fresno State, but I'm going to lump these plays into one.
Before we just get the NCAA Tournament best bets, let's get one last play to fire.
Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook
Column Record: 121-129-4 (-13.1 Units)
Texas A&M (-4.5) vs. Xavier
A&M's surge through the postseason has been remarkable, suffocating opposing offenses and finding a ton of success inside on offense.
While Xavier has responded well despite firing coach Travis Steele and losing lead guard Paul Scruggs, making it to the NIT Finals, I believe they are going to run into issues on both sides of the ball. For starters, the team lacks a strong enough ball handler to navigate the A&M ball pressure that is forcing turnovers at a top 30 rate and are posting the 12th best adjusted defensive efficiency rate in the country since the start of March, per Bart Torvik.
On defense, the Musketeers struggle to prevent shots at the rim, the bread and butter of the Aggies offense. Xavier ranks outside the top 200 in near shot proximity, meaning that teams are more than able to get inside and finish. For reference, Texas A&M is top 10 in the country in shot proximity on offense.
Ultimately, I see more avenues for success for the Aggies, who are playing more and more like a NCAA Tournament team that some projected they should be a few weeks ago, and just disposed of an elite defense in Washington State, winning 72-56.
This spread is a bit rich for my blood, but I think A&M is likely to win, so I'll pair them with the favorite in The Basketball Classic final.
Fresno State (-3) vs. Coastal Carolina
This is a true road game for the Bulldogs, who have had this game moved to Friday afternoon due to travel issues, but I'm not fazed.
Fresno State is the far superior team here with future NBA big man Orlando Robinson. While the Coastal Carolina defense is built to keep teams out of the paint, allowing the fifth furthest shot profile according to Haslemetrics, but the Fresno offense is top 40 in mid-range field goal percentage and have the best player on the floor in Robinson.
On the other side, Coastal's transition based offense is going to struggle against Fresno State's elite defense that is top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Not to mention, the Mountain West club is top 15 nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, which means CCU is likely going one-and-done on offense and will play on Fresno's third slowest adjusted tempo.
If this game becomes a grind, give me the Bulldogs to win this Tournament by executing in the half court even on the road. I don't trust the Chanticleers offense to generate enough offense in the half court to beat Fresno out.
Overall, I land on a +150 moneyline parlay between the two favroites.
PICK: Texas A&M/Fresno State Parlay (+150)
Get all of our best bets for the Final Four below on BetSided's Best Bets!
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!